The Hague School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.70 (fleet 1.11) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–33 (20%) as crew 0–5 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 | 1 | — | 0–5 |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 0–8 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 2 | 6–19 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (46 matches) the record is 8–38 against 7.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-21 | VISA Southside Team Race Series #1 | crew | 0.38 | -2.62 | 0–5 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| 2023-04-22 | VISA Team Championship | skipper | 1.09 | -1.91 | 0–8 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| 2022-10-08 | VISA Team Champs | skipper | 1.05 | 1.66 | 3–10 | 2.1 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2022-09-17 | VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.89 | 1.50 | 3–9 | 2.2 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 2022-04-23 | VISA Team Championship | skipper | 0.95 | 2.06 | 2–6 | 1.2 | +1.11 | 0.5 | 35% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Charlotte Stillman |  William and Mary |
'27 |
| ISSA | Charlotte Stillman |  Maury High School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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