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VISA Christchurch Regatta 2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 29 30 59
2 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 52 26 78
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 49 42 91
4 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 26 68 94
5 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 86 62 148
6 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 1 98 55 153
7 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 61 113 174
8 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 83 97 180
9 The Hague School The Hague School The Tritons 137 97 234
10 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 114 126 240
11 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 2 119 126 245
12 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 94 192 286
13 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 192 137 329
14 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 3 152 192 344
15 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 192 192 384
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 4 1 1 1 1 2 1 5 1 3 3 3 26 Kyle Pfrang '22
Kevin Li '23
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 1 3 2 4 2 1 5 6 2 1 1 1 29 Henry Allgeier '23
Emily Britt '23
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2 2 4 3 4 3 6 3 DSQ 2 2 2 49 Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro '22 [1-12]
Pj Rodrigues Jr '24 [1-8]
Maison Koepke '23 [9-12]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 3 6 3 5 5 8 3 2 3 5 5 4 52 Harrison Thomson '22
Kiana Beachy '24
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors BKD 10 8 2 3 4 2 8 4 6 4 5 61 Tyler Brown '23
Chloe Anderson '24
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 5 9 9 6 6 6 11 10 5 4 6 6 83 Rebecca Schill '23
Marin Soderberg '24
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 6 4 5 9 10 10 7 4 8 7 9 7 86 Robert Chase '22 [1-12]
Brylie Schaubach '22 [1-4]
Alex Salzberg '25 [5-12]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 9 12 10 8 9 5 4 7 6 8 8 BKD 94 Pierce Brindley '24
Nicholas Bielewicz '26
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 1 7 13 11 7 7 9 8 1 7 9 11 8 98 Blake Goodwin '23
Jake Marmon '24
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 10 7 6 10 11 12 13 9 9 11 7 9 114 Emily Priest '25
Lillian Rippel '25
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 2 12 8 7 12 8 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 119 Nick Fogt '23
Liam Burke '27
The Hague School The Hague School The Tritons 8 5 12 13 12 7 9 12 11 DNF DNS DNS 137 Charlotte Stillman '23 [1-12]
Justina Reynolds '24 [1-3, 8-12]
Thomas Bloys '24 [4-7]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 3 11 11 13 11 13 13 12 DNS 12 12 DNS 12 152 Gracie Goodwin '25
Abby Gryzen '23
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNF DNS DNS 192 No Show
No Show
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNF DNS DNS 192 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1 2 1 1 5 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 26 Maggie Campbell '22
Clara Murphy '23
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 4 3 2 3 3 2 2 4 3 1 1 2 30 Sean Trudell '24 [1-12]
Jack Poynter '25 [1-6]
Sabrina Casagrande '25 [7-12]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 5 4 5 6 1 3 4 2 1 2 3 6 42 Madeline Janzen '25 [1-2, 5-8]
Jordan Vieira '24 [3-4]
Jj Klempen '23 [9-12]
John "Peyton" Mcdonald '23 [1-4]
Nathaniel Bonham '24 [5-8]
Jordan Vieira '24 [9-12]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 1 10 6 4 5 2 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 55 Luke Manternach '22
Helen Schmuck '23
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 3 5 3 2 6 RAF 5 5 7 3 4 3 62 Maddie Murphy '25
Jackson Delanty '23
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 2 1 7 4 4 9 OCS 6 6 6 6 1 68 Leila Pfrang '25
Madison Bivins '25
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 8 7 6 7 7 DNF 11 9 5 7 7 7 97 Hunter Wheary '24 [1-12]
Anna Iacobucci '25 [1-4, 8-12]
Eliana Jin '26 [5-7]
The Hague School The Hague School The Tritons 9 9 8 8 10 5 7 7 9 9 8 8 97 Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22 [1-12]
Hannah Bonheur '24 [1-8, 10-12]
Thomas Bloys '24 [9]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 11 11 11 9 9 7 8 10 10 8 10 9 113 Jack Herritage '24 [1-12]
Molly Hanson '23 [1-4]
Collin Mcpherson '24 [5-12]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 7 12 9 12 8 6 6 12 11 11 DNS DNS 126 Ava Morgan '25 [1-4, 8-12]
Charlotte Shumate '23 [5-7]
Madeline Ballard '25 [1-4, 8-12]
Gabby Cloe '24 [5-7]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 2 DNF 8 12 11 12 10 9 11 8 10 9 10 126 Lillian Mcdermott '25
Felix Susta '25
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 6 10 10 10 11 8 10 8 DNS DNS DNS DNS 137 Katherine Anna Hamner '22
Aliyah Oakley '23
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 192 No Show
No Show
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 192 No Show
No Show
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 192 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1777777777777
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2101010101010101010101010
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity 1999999999999
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity 2111111111111111111111111
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity 3202020202020202020202020
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators212121212121212121212121
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors444444444444
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores181818181818181818181818
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints171717171717171717171717
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 1333333333333
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 2121212121212121212121212
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1161616161616161616161616
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2222222222222
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School The Tritons111111111111
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans666666666666

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1777777777777
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2101010101010101010101010
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity 1999999999999
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity 2111111111111111111111111
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity 3202020202020202020202020
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators212121212121212121212121
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors444444444444
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores181818181818181818181818
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints171717171717171717171717
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 1333333333333
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 2121212121212121212121212
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1161616161616161616161616
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2222222222222
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School The Tritons111111111111
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans666666666666
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro '22 [1-12] Pj Rodrigues Jr '24 [1-8]
Maison Koepke '23 [9-12]
Seahorses 1 Madeline Janzen '25 [1-2, 5-8]
Jordan Vieira '24 [3-4]
Jj Klempen '23 [9-12]		 John "Peyton" Mcdonald '23 [1-4]
Nathaniel Bonham '24 [5-8]
Jordan Vieira '24 [9-12]
Christchurch School Christchurch School No Show No Show
Seahorses 2 No Show No Show
Grafton High School Grafton High School Blake Goodwin '23 Jake Marmon '24
Varsity 1 Luke Manternach '22 Helen Schmuck '23
Grafton High School Grafton High School Nick Fogt '23 Liam Burke '27
Varsity 2 Lillian Mcdermott '25 Felix Susta '25
Grafton High School Grafton High School Gracie Goodwin '25 Abby Gryzen '23
Varsity 3 No Show No Show
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Pierce Brindley '24 Nicholas Bielewicz '26
Navigators No Show No Show
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Tyler Brown '23 Chloe Anderson '24
Warriors Jack Herritage '24 [1-12] Molly Hanson '23 [1-4]
Collin Mcpherson '24 [5-12]
Maury High School Maury High School Emily Priest '25 Lillian Rippel '25
Commodores Ava Morgan '25 [1-4, 8-12]
Charlotte Shumate '23 [5-7]		 Madeline Ballard '25 [1-4, 8-12]
Gabby Cloe '24 [5-7]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kyle Pfrang '22 Kevin Li '23
Saints Leila Pfrang '25 Madison Bivins '25
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Henry Allgeier '23 Emily Britt '23
Bulldogs 1 Sean Trudell '24 [1-12] Jack Poynter '25 [1-6]
Sabrina Casagrande '25 [7-12]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Rebecca Schill '23 Marin Soderberg '24
Bulldogs 2 Hunter Wheary '24 [1-12] Anna Iacobucci '25 [1-4, 8-12]
Eliana Jin '26 [5-7]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Harrison Thomson '22 Kiana Beachy '24
Oaks 1 Maggie Campbell '22 Clara Murphy '23
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Robert Chase '22 [1-12] Brylie Schaubach '22 [1-4]
Alex Salzberg '25 [5-12]
Oaks 2 Maddie Murphy '25 Jackson Delanty '23
The Hague School The Hague School Charlotte Stillman '23 [1-12] Justina Reynolds '24 [1-3, 8-12]
Thomas Bloys '24 [4-7]
The Tritons Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22 [1-12] Hannah Bonheur '24 [1-8, 10-12]
Thomas Bloys '24 [9]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy No Show No Show
Trojans Katherine Anna Hamner '22 Aliyah Oakley '23

Conditions — 05/07/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1002.2 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 11.4 kn
Gusts to 25.3 kn
From NNW (343°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.8 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1002.2 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.05 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →