Maury High School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.86 (fleet 1.34) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–7 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 7–6 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 0–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 7–6 against 3.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-22 | VISA Team Championship | skipper | 0.98 | 3.25 | 4–4 | 1.9 | +2.27 | 2.8 | 5% |
| 2023-03-18 | VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.84 | 2.26 | 3–2 | 2.0 | +1.42 | 0.8 | 28% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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