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VISA Team 2 Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 28
2 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 29
3 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 32
4 Tabb High School Tabb High School Tigers 39
5 Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 51
6 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 61
7 Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 80
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores B 2 1 4 7 Charlotte Shumate '24
Lenox Wakefield '27
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors B 1 2 7 10 Ryan Stokes '28 [1-3]
Chloe Anderson '24 [1-2]
Kieran Mason '26 [3]
Tabb High School Tabb High School Tigers A 3 6 3 12 Sophia Lopez '30
Rozlyn Theriault '29
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators A 7 3 2 12 Sarah Moore '29
Sam Fox-Goens '28
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators B 4 5 8 17 Charlie Moore '27
Patrick Bielewicz '28
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors A 5 12 1 18 Kieran Mason '26 [1-2]
Chloe Anderson '24 [3]
Chase Young '28 [1-2]
Tyler Slemp '25 [3]
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons A 6 8 5 19 Olivia Jensen '27
Ashlynn Kopaskey '25
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores A 9 10 6 25 Lillian Rippel '25
Annika Fox '27
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders A 11 4 12 27 Brett Clemmey '27
Sadie (Sami) Forrest '28
Tabb High School Tabb High School Tigers B 8 9 10 27 Raquel Theriault '26 [1-2]
Riddick Walton '26 [3]
Riddick Walton '26 [1-2]
Raquel Theriault '26 [3]
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons B 10 11 11 32 Megan Allman '24
Mikenna Dunlap '24
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders B 12 13 9 34 Hayden Newman '25 [1-2]
Meadow Page '26 [3]
Ava Patterson '28 [1-2]
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights A 13 7 DNF 35 Madison Bivins '25
Aidan Murphy '25
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights B DNS DNS DNS 45 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons202020
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators212121
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors222222
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores232323
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights242424
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders252525
Tabb High SchoolTabb High School Tigers262626

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons282828
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators292929
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors303030
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores313131
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights323232
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders333333
Tabb High SchoolTabb High School Tigers343434

Conditions — 05/25/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1011.5 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From ENE (62°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1011.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Academy: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.16)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.30)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Norfolk Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →