Kecoughtan High School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.64 (fleet 1.02) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–11 (31%) as crew 1–1 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | 1 | — | 1–1 |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 5–11 against 3.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-20 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.92 | 0.36 | 1–5 | 1.3 | −0.57 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2023-10-07 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.68 | 1.99 | 4–6 | 2.5 | +1.31 | 1.1 | 19% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Hampton City Schools Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| VISA Team 2 Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.3 | 0.57 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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