| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 3–3 |
| 5 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 2–4 |
| 6 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 1–5 |
| 7 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,595 team race matches sailed before 2024-09-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 24 matches (96%) with a log-loss of 0.165 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.33 ± 0.46: a typical event, more orderly than 64% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School | 8.32 | 11.32 | 8–0 | 7.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 79% |
| 4 | Maury High School | 1.95 | 2.98 | 3–3 | 2.4 | +1.03 | 0.3 | 47% |
| 5 | Kecoughtan High School | 0.65 | 1.66 | 2–4 | 1.5 | +1.01 | 0.3 | 44% |
| 2 | Norfolk Academy | 5.32 | 6.15 | 6–2 | 5.6 | +0.83 | 0.2 | 63% |
| 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 3.60 | 3.76 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 6 | Hampton Roads Academy | 2.00 | -0.89 | 1–5 | 2.5 | −2.89 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 7 | Poquoson High School | -1.60 | -4.60 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margaret Poston | Norfolk Academy | 1.12 | 4.12 | 4–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 63% |
| Madeline Janzen | Christchurch School | 2.27 | 5.27 | 8–0 | 7.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 79% |
| Wylder Smith | Christchurch School | 2.96 | 5.96 | 8–0 | 7.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 79% |
| Nathan Libby | Maury High School | 0.58 | 1.61 | 3–3 | 2.4 | +1.03 | 0.3 | 47% |
| Angelo Bellecci | Kecoughtan High School | 0.37 | 1.38 | 2–4 | 1.5 | +1.01 | 0.3 | 44% |
| Alex Salzberg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.14 | 1.29 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Anna Lenox | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.54 | 0.70 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Grant Fernandez | Norfolk Academy | 0.81 | 0.41 | 2–2 | 2.1 | −0.41 | 0.0 | 92% |
| Will Chapman | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.08 | -1.81 | 1–5 | 2.5 | −2.89 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Madeline Monteith | Hampton Roads Academy | 0.39 | -2.49 | 1–5 | 2.5 | −2.89 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Brett Clemmey | Poquoson High School | -0.06 | -3.06 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Commodores | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Warriors | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Warriors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Commodores | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Commodores | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
