Maury High School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.21 (fleet 0.31) | 221 of 231 | +0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–37 (18%) as crew 0–2 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 4–20 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 3 | 2–13 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Fall 2024 | 1 | — | 0–2 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 8–37 against 8.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | MASSA 2026 Team Race Championship/Baker Qualifier | skipper | 0.46 | 0.78 | 2–10 | 1.7 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2026-04-18 | VISA Patterson Trophy and Team race Champs | skipper | 0.44 | 0.87 | 2–6 | 1.6 | +0.43 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2026-04-04 | VISA Hampton Roads Academy Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.30 | -2.70 | 0–4 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| 2025-10-11 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.19 | -2.81 | 0–6 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| 2025-10-04 | VISA NCS Team Regatta I | skipper | 0.26 | -2.74 | 0–4 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
| 2025-09-20 | VISA HCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.31 | 2.65 | 2–3 | 0.8 | +2.33 | 1.7 | 14% |
| 2025-04-19 | VISA Team Race Championship for Patterson Trophy | skipper | 0.19 | 0.66 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.47 | 0.1 | 62% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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