VISA Hampton Roads Academy Team Race Regatta

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 13,067 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 13 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.325 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.22 ± 0.66: a typical event, more orderly than 57% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Christchurch School Varsity 1	1	7.66 school +0.25	Wylder Smith / Henry Clair 2.79 Elliott Lipp / Cara Moss 2.45 Wyatt Lipp / Cindy Zhang 2.15	82%	6–0 (100%)	+1.0
2	Norfolk Academy Varsity	3	5.87 school +0.30	James Allgeier / Juliana Libby 3.02 Eliana Mopper / David Martin 1.41 Grant Fernandez / Vera Hartz 1.12	50%	4–2 (67%)	+1.0
3	Christchurch School Varsity 2	2	6.62 school +0.25	Sam De Los Reyes / Millicent Branflick 2.35 Duncan Hardy / Paula Sancho 1.93 Aaron Griffith / Rivers Hickey 2.07	64%	2–4 (33%)	−1.8
6	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	5	2.49 school −0.47, home +0.07	Charlie Moore / Daphne Ambrosino 1.29 Madeline Monteith / Patrick Bielewicz 0.78 Josie Brindley / Nicholas Bielewicz 0.62 1–1 Nicholas Bielewicz / Josie Brindley 1.04 0–2	15%	1–3 (25%)	+0.4
7	Maury High School Commodores	4	2.39 school −0.07	Tucker Mcgrady / Cooper Longhini 1.46 Samuel Rogge / Lenox Wakefield 0.63 Elias Bowes / Colin Moorhouse 0.35	16%	0–4 (0%)	−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Christchurch School Varsity 1	7.66	10.66	6–0	5.0	≥+3.00	1.6	30%
2	Norfolk Academy Varsity	5.87	7.21	4–2	3.0	+1.34	0.8	28%
6	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	2.49	3.71	1–3	0.6	+1.22	0.3	54%
3	Christchurch School Varsity 2	6.62	4.01	2–4	3.8	−2.62	2.6	99%
7	Maury High School Commodores	2.39	-0.61	0–4	0.6	≤−3.00	1.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Wylder Smith	Christchurch School	2.79	5.79	6–0	5.0	≥+3.00	1.6	30%
Wyatt Lipp	Christchurch School	2.15	5.15	6–0	5.0	≥+3.00	1.6	30%
Grant Fernandez	Norfolk Academy	1.12	2.45	4–2	3.0	+1.34	0.8	28%
Charlie Moore	Hampton Roads Academy	1.29	2.51	1–3	0.6	+1.22	0.3	54%
Madeline Monteith	Hampton Roads Academy	0.78	2.00	1–3	0.6	+1.22	0.3	54%
Duncan Hardy	Christchurch School	1.93	-0.68	2–4	3.8	−2.62	2.6	99%
Aaron Griffith	Christchurch School	2.07	-0.54	2–4	3.8	−2.62	2.6	99%
Samuel Rogge	Maury High School	0.63	-2.37	0–4	0.6	≤−3.00	1.1	>99%
Elias Bowes	Maury High School	0.35	-2.65	0–4	0.6	≤−3.00	1.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Varsity 1	1-2-3	def.		Commodores	4-5-6
2		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Navigators	4-5-6
3		Warriors	1-2-4	def.		Tritons	3-5-6
4		Varsity 3	1-2-3	def.		Varsity 4	4-5-6
5		Varsity 1	1-2-6	def.		Varsity 2	3-4-5
6		Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Commodores	3-4-6
7		Warriors	1-3-6	def.		Oaks	2-4-5
8		Varsity 3	1-2-3	def.		Tritons	4-5-6
9		Varsity 1	1-2-4	def.		Navigators	3-5-6
10		Varsity 2	1-2-4	def.		Commodores	3-5-6
11		Warriors	1-2-3	def.		Varsity 4	4-5-6
12		Oaks	1-2-3	def.		Tritons	4-5-6
13		Varsity 1	2-3-4	def.		Varsity	1-5-6
14		Varsity 2	1-2-3	def.		Navigators	4-5-6
15		Warriors	1-3-4	def.		Varsity 3	2-5-6
16		Oaks	1-2-4	def.		Varsity 4	3-5-6
17		Navigators	1-2-6	def.		Commodores	3-4-5
18		Varsity	1-4-5	def.		Varsity 2	2-3-6
19		Tritons	1-3-5	def.		Varsity 4	2-4-6
20		Oaks	1-2-5	def.		Varsity 3	3-4-6
21		Varsity 1	1-2-5	def.		Warriors	3-4-6
22		Commodores	1-2-4	def.		Tritons	3-5-6
23		Navigators	1-2-5	def.		Varsity 4	3-4-6
24		Varsity	1-2-4	def.		Oaks	3-5-6
25		Varsity 2	2-3-4	def.		Varsity 3	1-5-6
26		Varsity 1	1-2-3	def.		Tritons	4-5-6
27		Commodores	1-2-4	def.		Varsity 4	3-5-6
28		Oaks	1-2-6	def.		Navigators	3-4-5
29		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Varsity 3	4-5-6
30		Varsity 2	1-2-5	def.		Warriors	3-4-6
31		Varsity 1	1-2-3	def.		Varsity 4	4-5-6
32		Commodores	1-3-6	def.		Oaks	2-4-5
33		Varsity 3	1-3-6	def.		Navigators	2-4-5
34		Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Warriors	3-4-6
35		Varsity 2	1-2-3	def.		Tritons	4-5-6
36		Varsity 1	1-2-6	def.		Oaks	3-4-5
37		Varsity 3	1-2-3	def.		Commodores	4-5-6
38		Navigators	1-3-5	def.		Warriors	2-4-6
39		Varsity	1-2-4 DSQ	def.		Tritons	3-5-6
40		Varsity 2	1-2-3	def.		Varsity 4	4-5-6
41		Varsity 1	1-2-4	def.		Varsity 3	3-5-6
42		Commodores	2-3-5	def.		Warriors	1-4-6 DNF
43		Navigators	2-3-4	def.		Tritons	1-5-6
44		Varsity	1-2-3 DSQ	def.		Varsity 4	4-5-6
45		Varsity 2	1-2-3	def.		Oaks	4-5-6
46		Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Varsity 2	3-4-5
47		Varsity 1	1-2-5	def.		Oaks	3-4-6
48		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Oaks	4-5-6
49		Varsity 1	1-3-6	def.		Varsity 2	2-4-5
50		Varsity 2	1-2-3	def.		Oaks	4-5-6
51		Varsity 1	2-3-4	def.		Varsity	1-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Christchurch School	Varsity 1	Elliott Lipp '26 Wyatt Lipp '28 Wylder Smith '27	Cara Moss '26 Cindy Zhang '28 Henry Clair '29
	Norfolk Academy	Varsity	Eliana Mopper '26 Grant Fernandez '27 James Allgeier '27	David Martin '26 Vera Hartz '26 Juliana Libby '28
	Christchurch School	Varsity 2	Aaron Griffith '27 Duncan Hardy '27 Sam De Los Reyes '26	Rivers Hickey '28 Paula Sancho '29 Millicent Branflick '26
	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	Charlie Moore '27 Josie Brindley '26 Madeline Monteith '29 Nicholas Bielewicz '26	Daphne Ambrosino '27 Nicholas Bielewicz '26 Patrick Bielewicz '28 Josie Brindley '26
	Maury High School	Commodores	Elias Bowes '27 Samuel Rogge '28 Tucker Mcgrady '26	Colin Moorhouse '27 Lenox Wakefield '27 Cooper Longhini '28