| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 12–1 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | 10–3 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 6–7 |
| 4 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | 5–8 |
| 5 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 10–3 |
| 6 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | 4–9 |
| 7 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 0–13 |
| 8 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 1–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,935 team race matches sailed before 2025-10-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 52 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.372 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.06 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 37% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | 2.01 | 3.82 | 5–8 | 2.9 | +1.81 | 2.3 | 7% |
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 6.89 | 7.42 | 12–1 | 11.6 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 5 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 4.34 | 4.76 | 10–3 | 9.5 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 5.79 | 6.02 | 10–3 | 9.7 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 7 | Maury High School Commodores | 1.11 | 1.05 | 2–11 | 2.1 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 4.07 | 3.75 | 6–7 | 6.4 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 6 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 1.94 | 1.47 | 4–9 | 4.7 | −0.47 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 8 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 2.09 | 0.68 | 3–10 | 5.1 | −1.40 | 1.6 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 13 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Commodores | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-3-6 |
| 39 | |
Oaks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Commodores | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 50 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
