Norfolk Academy '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.92 (fleet 1.56) | 156 of 231 | −0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–22 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 3–4 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 2 | 3–5 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Fall 2024 | 2 | 5–4 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 2 | 3–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 16–22 against 18.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | VISA Patterson Trophy and Team race Champs | skipper | 1.26 | 0.53 | 2–4 | 2.5 | −0.73 | 0.2 | 87% |
| 2025-10-11 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.22 | 1.32 | 1–3 | 1.0 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 86% |
| 2025-10-04 | VISA NCS Team Regatta I | skipper | 1.15 | 1.69 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 67% |
| 2025-03-29 | VISA Poquoson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.93 | -1.48 | 3–4 | 4.7 | −2.40 | 2.5 | 99% |
| 2024-10-05 | VISA Team race Championship | skipper | 1.07 | -1.10 | 1–4 | 2.2 | −2.16 | 1.3 | 98% |
| 2024-09-14 | VISA Hampton City Schools Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.12 | 4.12 | 4–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 63% |
| 2023-10-04 | VISA Southside Team Race Series #2 | skipper | 0.70 | -2.30 | 0–3 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| 2023-09-21 | VISA Southside Team Race Series #1 | skipper | 0.79 | 1.05 | 3–2 | 2.8 | +0.26 | 0.0 | 67% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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