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VISA Hague Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 6 11 17
2 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 15 9 24
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 21 7 28
4 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 26 20 46
5 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 14 35 49
6 The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 30 24 54
7 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 36 25 61
8 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 26 36 62
9 York High School York High School Falcons 28 36 64
10 Heritage High School - VA Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA 40 28 68
11 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 42 43 85
12 Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 41 44 85
13 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 47 51 98
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 2 2 1 1 6 Brandt Adams '30
Corrine Todd '28
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 6 1 3 4 14 Chase Duhon-Kovach '29
Finian Bohan '27
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 3 5 2 5 15 Kieran Mason '26
Tyler Slemp '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 DSQ 4 2 21 Aaron Griffith '27
Duncan Hardy '27
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 4 3 5 DNF 26 Emily Priest '25
Lenox Wakefield '27
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 5 4 DNF 3 26 Margaret Poston '28
Juliana Libby '28
York High School York High School Falcons 7 7 8 6 28 Grayson Kelley '27
Tyler Compton '28
The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 8 6 7 9 30 Nathan Libby '26
Aniyah Lang '28
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 9 DSQ 6 7 36 Tucker Mcgrady '26
Madeline Ballard '25
Heritage High School - VA Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA 10 9 10 11 40 Angelo Bellecci '25
Piper Cartwright '27
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 12 8 11 10 41 Thatcher Elliott '27
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 11 DNF 9 8 42 Hunter Walton '25
Tristan Campbell '27
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 13 10 12 12 47 Pierson Teer '27
Olivia Wolff '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 2 2 2 7 Gp Keating '27
George Zhao '27
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 1 1 5 9 Caleb Kyle '25
Sullivan Downs '28
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 3 4 3 1 11 Jesse Hanenburg '30
Tucker Peltier '26
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 4 5 8 3 20 Caspian Collett '25
Colin Moorhouse '27
The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 6 9 5 4 24 Samuel Rogge '28
Rylie Bowen '27
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 9 6 4 6 25 Lillian Rippel '25
Annika Fox '27
Heritage High School - VA Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA 10 3 6 9 28 Chase Young '28
Lillian Melzer '30
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 5 7 11 12 35 Anna Lenox '28 [1-4]
Michael Wattenbarger '27 [1-2]
Mollie Armentrout '28 [3-4]
York High School York High School Falcons 7 8 DSQ 7 36 Raquel Theriault '26
Dylan Thomas '28
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 8 10 10 8 36 Vera Hartz '26
Emma Tartiere-Martinez '28
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders DNF 12 7 10 43 Brett Clemmey '27
Luke Harrell '27
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 11 11 9 13 44 Thatcher Elliott '27
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 12 DNF DNF 11 51 Jackson Raymond '27
Wyatt Raymond '30
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2025 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 11111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 22222
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons3333
Heritage High School - VAHeritage High School - VA Heritage - VA4444
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors5555
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 16666
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 27777
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs8888
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 19999
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 210101010
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders11111111
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School Tritons12121212
York High SchoolYork High School Falcons13131313

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 11111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 22222
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons3333
Heritage High School - VAHeritage High School - VA Heritage - VA4444
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors5555
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 16666
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 27777
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs8888
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 19999
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 210101010
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders11111111
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School Tritons12121212
York High SchoolYork High School Falcons13131313

Conditions — 04/26/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1013.8 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.5 kn
avg  ·  max 16.9 kn
Gusts to 37.3 kn
From SW (223°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1013.8 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 15 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at The Hague: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at The Hague by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at The Hague, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →