MASSA 2026 Fall Team Race Championship

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 14,249 team race matches sailed before 2026-10-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 76 of 90 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.425 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Christchurch School Seahorses One	1	7.47 school +0.34	Wylder Smith / Aaron Griffith 2.88 Wyatt Lipp / Sarah Moore 2.20 Edu Navarro Avila / Kaia Deane 2.03	84%	16–2 (89%)	+0.9
2	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	5	5.52 school +0.18	Cole Buczkowski / Christos Lambrou 2.24 12–2 Bradley Welch / Alex Pistolakis 1.43 10–2 Patrick Kennedy / Edward Solodkiy 1.81 9–1 Cole Buczkowski / Edward Solodkiy 2.15 2–2 Patrick Kennedy / Bradley Welch 1.77 2–2 Christos Lambrou / Alex Pistolakis 1.01 2–2 Patrick Kennedy / Ethan Welch 1.77 3–1 Ethan Welch / Alex Pistolakis 0.94 2–0	56%	14–4 (78%)	+4.0
3	Severn School Admirals	2	7.30 school +0.07	Harrison Szot / Georgia Knoepfle 2.63 12–4 Antoine Ismael / Lila Knoepfle 2.27 10–4 Will Mohler / Ana Fishback 2.23 12–2 Chris Hanson / Kai Davids 2.42 8–2	81%	14–4 (78%)	−0.6
4	The Stony Brook School Bears	4	5.66	Arancha Rivero-Ansed / Eric Panebianco 2.36 Juan Francisco Chumilla Quesada / Jp Panebianco 1.51 Ian Ainger / Gisele Brandao 1.75 11–5 Ian Ainger / Nora Beaver 1.82 2–0	57%	13–5 (72%)	+2.8
5	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs One	3	6.15 school +0.27	Grant Fernandez / Ethan Kerns 1.06 James Allgeier / Juliana Libby 2.95 7–5 Andrew Allgeier / Will Poynter 1.99 3–5 James Allgeier / Soham Patel 2.93 4–2 Andrew Allgeier / Jane Earp 1.98 4–0 Margaret Poston / Jane Earp 1.38 3–1 Andrew Allgeier / Soham Patel 1.99 1–1	65%	11–7 (61%)	−0.7
6	Mamaroneck High School Tigers	8	3.82 school +0.32	Ellie Millar / Henry Kuriloff 1.45 Mason Colgan / Aliya Paolercio 1.19 Jackson Conlan / Gabriel Banon 0.78	28%	9–9 (50%)	+3.9
7	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	7	4.16 school +0.12	Chase Duhon-Kovach / Mollie Armentrout 1.31 Finian Bohan / Michael Wattenbarger 0.54 Brandt Adams / Hunter Lavelle 2.09	32%	6–12 (33%)	+0.2
8	Key School Zags	6	5.46 school −0.16	Trey Waters / Scott Lochner 2.11 Casey Burman / Charlotte Lian 2.03 Ethan Purdon / Gideon Santana 1.44	55%	5–13 (28%)	−5.0
9	Gunston Herons	9	3.74 school +0.11	Andrew Shingledecker / Kate Doffermyre 1.44 Mercer Rensberger / Meredith Dalzell 0.94 Preston Allen / Izzy Labrador 1.12	27%	2–16 (11%)	−2.9
10	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	10	2.80	Mary Hayes Cobbum / Vika Ferus 1.18 Alex Julian / Owen Henry 0.85 Liam Peterson / Cora Shannon 0.57	15%	0–18 (0%)	−2.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Christian Brothers Academy	5.52	7.28	14–4	10.0	+1.76	3.8	2%
6	Mamaroneck High School	3.82	5.34	9–9	5.1	+1.52	3.5	3%
4	The Stony Brook School	5.66	6.81	13–5	10.2	+1.15	1.7	10%
1	Christchurch School	7.47	8.10	16–2	15.1	+0.63	0.3	41%
7	Norfolk Collegiate School	4.16	4.22	6–12	5.9	+0.06	0.0	57%
5	Norfolk Academy	6.15	5.89	11–7	11.7	−0.26	0.1	75%
3	Severn School	7.30	7.01	14–4	14.6	−0.29	0.1	76%
9	Gunston	3.74	2.07	2–16	4.9	−1.67	2.4	99%
8	Key School	5.46	3.53	5–13	10.0	−1.93	5.3	>99%
10	Archbishop Spalding	2.80	-0.20	0–18	2.7	≤−3.00	4.0	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Bradley Welch	Christian Brothers Academy	1.43	3.63	10–2	6.5	+2.20	4.0	2%
Cole Buczkowski	Christian Brothers Academy	2.24	4.00	14–4	10.0	+1.76	3.8	2%
Patrick Kennedy	Christian Brothers Academy	1.81	3.57	14–4	10.0	+1.76	3.8	2%
Ellie Millar	Mamaroneck High School	1.45	2.97	9–9	5.1	+1.52	3.5	3%
Mason Colgan	Mamaroneck High School	1.19	2.71	9–9	5.1	+1.52	3.5	3%
Jackson Conlan	Mamaroneck High School	0.78	2.30	9–9	5.1	+1.52	3.5	3%
Arancha Rivero-Ansed	The Stony Brook School	2.36	3.51	13–5	10.2	+1.15	1.7	10%
Juan Francisco Chumilla Quesada	The Stony Brook School	1.51	2.66	13–5	10.2	+1.15	1.7	10%
Ian Ainger	The Stony Brook School	1.75	2.90	13–5	10.2	+1.15	1.7	10%
Will Mohler	Severn School	2.23	2.95	12–2	11.0	+0.72	0.4	38%
Wylder Smith	Christchurch School	2.88	3.51	16–2	15.1	+0.63	0.3	41%
Wyatt Lipp	Christchurch School	2.20	2.83	16–2	15.1	+0.63	0.3	41%
Edu Navarro Avila	Christchurch School	2.03	2.66	16–2	15.1	+0.63	0.3	41%
Margaret Poston	Norfolk Academy	1.38	1.89	3–1	2.7	+0.50	0.1	61%
Chase Duhon-Kovach	Norfolk Collegiate School	1.31	1.38	6–12	5.9	+0.06	0.0	57%
Finian Bohan	Norfolk Collegiate School	0.54	0.61	6–12	5.9	+0.06	0.0	57%
Brandt Adams	Norfolk Collegiate School	2.09	2.15	6–12	5.9	+0.06	0.0	57%
Christos Lambrou	Christian Brothers Academy	1.01	0.96	2–2	2.0	−0.06	0.0	82%
James Allgeier	Norfolk Academy	2.95	2.69	11–7	11.7	−0.26	0.1	75%
Grant Fernandez	Norfolk Academy	1.06	0.80	11–7	11.7	−0.26	0.1	75%
Chris Hanson	Severn School	2.42	2.11	8–2	8.3	−0.32	0.1	78%
Andrew Allgeier	Norfolk Academy	1.99	1.49	8–6	9.0	−0.50	0.3	83%
Harrison Szot	Severn School	2.63	2.04	12–4	13.0	−0.59	0.3	86%
Antoine Ismael	Severn School	2.27	1.46	10–4	11.3	−0.81	0.6	91%
Andrew Shingledecker	Gunston	1.44	-0.23	2–16	4.9	−1.67	2.4	99%
Mercer Rensberger	Gunston	0.94	-0.73	2–16	4.9	−1.67	2.4	99%
Preston Allen	Gunston	1.12	-0.55	2–16	4.9	−1.67	2.4	99%
Trey Waters	Key School	2.11	0.18	5–13	10.0	−1.93	5.3	>99%
Casey Burman	Key School	2.03	0.10	5–13	10.0	−1.93	5.3	>99%
Ethan Purdon	Key School	1.44	-0.50	5–13	10.0	−1.93	5.3	>99%
Mary Hayes Cobbum	Archbishop Spalding	1.18	-1.82	0–18	2.7	≤−3.00	4.0	>99%
Alex Julian	Archbishop Spalding	0.85	-2.15	0–18	2.7	≤−3.00	4.0	>99%
Liam Peterson	Archbishop Spalding	0.57	-2.42	0–18	2.7	≤−3.00	4.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Bulldogs One	1-2-4	def.		Herons	3-5-6
2		Seahorses One	1-2-6	def.		Colts	3-4-5
3		Bears	1-2-5	def.		Oaks	3-4-6
4		Tigers	1-2-6	def.		Zags	3-4-5
5		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
6		Colts	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
7		Bulldogs One	1-2-3	def.		Oaks	4-5-6
8		Seahorses One	1-2-3	def.		Zags	4-5-6
9		Admirals	1-2-4	def.		Bears	3-5-6
10		Tigers	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
11		Oaks	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
12		Colts	1-2-5	def.		Zags	3-4-6
13		Admirals	1-2-5	def.		Bulldogs One	3-4-6
14		Seahorses One	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
15		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
16		Tigers	2-3-5	def.		Colts	1-4-6
17		Admirals	1-2-5	def.		Oaks	3-4-6
18		Zags	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
19		Bears	1-2-6	def.		Bulldogs One	3-4-5
20		Seahorses One	1-2-4	def.		Tigers	3-5-6
21		Colts	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
22		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Zags	4-5-6
23		Oaks	1-2-5	def.		Cavaliers	3-4-6
24		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Tigers	4-5-6
25		Seahorses One	1-2-6	def.		Bulldogs One	3-4-5
26		Zags	1-3-5	def.		Herons	2-4-6
27		Colts	1-3-5	def.		Admirals	2-4-6
28		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
29		Oaks	1-2-6	def.		Tigers	3-4-5
30		Bulldogs One	2-3-5	def.		Zags	1-4-6
31		Seahorses One	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
32		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
33		Colts	2-3-4	def.		Oaks	1-5-6
34		Bulldogs One	1-2-5	def.		Tigers	3-4-6
35		Seahorses One	1-2-5	def.		Bears	3-4-6
36		Herons	1-2-4	def.		Cavaliers	3-5-6
37		Oaks	1-2-4	def.		Zags	3-5-6
38		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Tigers	4-5-6
39		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Colts	4-5-6
40		Bulldogs One	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
41		Seahorses One	1-2-5	def.		Oaks	3-4-6
42		Tigers	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
43		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Zags	4-5-6
44		Colts	1-2-4	def.		Bulldogs One	3-5-6
45		Seahorses One	1-2-5	def.		Admirals	3-4-6
46		Bulldogs One	1-2-5	def.		Herons	3-4-6
47		Seahorses One	1-2-5	def.		Colts	3-4-6
48		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Oaks	4-5-6
49		Tigers	1-2-5	def.		Zags	3-4-6
50		Admirals	1-2-5	def.		Herons	3-4-6
51		Colts	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
52		Bulldogs One	1-3-5	def.		Oaks	2-4-6
53		Seahorses One	1-2-4	def.		Zags	3-5-6
54		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Bears	4-5-6
55		Tigers	1-2-4	def.		Cavaliers	3-5-6
56		Oaks	1-4-5	def.		Herons	2-3-6
57		Colts	1-3-5	def.		Zags	2-4-6
58		Admirals	1-2-5	def.		Bulldogs One	3-4-6
59		Seahorses One	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
60		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
61		Colts	1-2-3	def.		Tigers	4-5-6
62		Admirals	1-3-5	def.		Oaks	2-4-6
63		Zags	1-4-5	def.		Cavaliers	2-3-6
64		Bulldogs One	2-3-4	def.		Bears	1-5-6
65		Seahorses One	1-2-3	def.		Tigers	4-5-6
66		Colts	1-2-5	def.		Herons	3-4-6
67		Admirals	1-2-4	def.		Zags	3-5-6
68		Oaks	2-3-4	def.		Cavaliers	1-5-6
69		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Tigers	4-5-6
70		Bulldogs One	1-2-5	def.		Seahorses One	3-4-6 DNF
71		Zags	1-2-6	def.		Herons	3-4-5
72		Colts	1-2-6	def.		Admirals	3-4-5
73		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
74		Tigers	2-4-6 BKD	def.		Oaks	1-3-5
75		Bulldogs One	1-2-5	def.		Zags	3-4-6
76		Seahorses One	1-3-5	def.		Herons	2-4-6
77		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
78		Colts	1-2-5	def.		Oaks	3-4-6
79		Tigers	1-4-5	def.		Bulldogs One	2-3-6
80		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Seahorses One	4-5-6
81		Herons	1-2-6	def.		Cavaliers	3-4-5
82		Zags	1-2-6	def.		Oaks	3-4-5
83		Admirals	1-2-6	def.		Tigers	3-4-5
84		Colts	1-2-5	def.		Bears	3-4-6
85		Bulldogs One	1-2-5	def.		Cavaliers	3-4-6
86		Seahorses One	1-2-5	def.		Oaks	3-4-6
87		Tigers	2-3-4	def.		Herons	1-5-6
88		Bears	1-2-6	def.		Zags	3-4-5
89		Colts	2-3-4	def.		Bulldogs One	1-5-6
90		Seahorses One	1-2-4	def.		Admirals	3-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Christchurch School	Seahorses One	Edu Navarro Avila '29 Wyatt Lipp '28 Wylder Smith '27	Kaia Deane '28 Sarah Moore '29 Aaron Griffith '27
	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	Bradley Welch '30 Christos Lambrou '29 Cole Buczkowski '27 Ethan Welch '30 Patrick Kennedy '28	Alex Pistolakis '29 Christos Lambrou '29 Edward Solodkiy '29 Bradley Welch '30 Ethan Welch '30
	Severn School	Admirals	Antoine Ismael '27 Chris Hanson '27 Harrison Szot '27 Will Mohler '27	Lila Knoepfle '27 Kai Davids '28 Georgia Knoepfle '29 Ana Fishback '27
	The Stony Brook School	Bears	Arancha Rivero-Ansed '27 Ian Ainger '28 Juan Francisco Chumilla Quesada '28	Eric Panebianco '29 Gisele Brandao '27 Nora Beaver '27 Jp Panebianco '27
	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs One	Andrew Allgeier '30 Grant Fernandez '27 James Allgeier '27 Margaret Poston '28	Will Poynter '27 Jane Earp '27 Soham Patel '28 Ethan Kerns '29 Juliana Libby '28
	Mamaroneck High School	Tigers	Ellie Millar '28 Jackson Conlan '29 Mason Colgan '27	Henry Kuriloff '28 Gabriel Banon '28 Aliya Paolercio '28
	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	Brandt Adams '30 Chase Duhon-Kovach '29 Finian Bohan '27	Hunter Lavelle '28 Mollie Armentrout '28 Michael Wattenbarger '27
	Key School	Zags	Casey Burman '28 Ethan Purdon '29 Trey Waters '29	Charlotte Lian '29 Gideon Santana '28 Scott Lochner '28
	Gunston	Herons	Andrew Shingledecker '27 Mercer Rensberger '29 Preston Allen '27	Kate Doffermyre '28 Meredith Dalzell '28 Izzy Labrador '28
	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	Alex Julian '28 Liam Peterson '29 Mary Hayes Cobbum '27	Owen Henry '28 Cora Shannon '30 Vika Ferus '27