Key School '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.81 (fleet 2.96) | 63 of 231 | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 25–24 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 17–12 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 2 | 8–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (49 matches) the record is 25–24 against 26.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | MASSA 2026 Team Race Championship/Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.24 | -0.06 | 4–8 | 7.3 | −2.29 | 4.4 | >99% |
| 2026-04-11 | MDISA Team Race | skipper | 2.24 | 3.72 | 13–4 | 11.1 | +1.48 | 1.5 | 15% |
| 2025-10-18 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.10 | 1.66 | 5–9 | 5.6 | −0.44 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 2025-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.05 | 2.38 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.33 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA TAYC Fleet Tier 1 | Skipper | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| MDISA Varsity Championship | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.0 | 2.56 |
| MDISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 76% | — |
| MDISA 's T1 - AYC's "Polar Bear Plunge" Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 3.98 |
| MDISA Fleet Qualifier Spring 2026 | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.8 | 2.91 |
| MASSA 2026 Team Race Championship/Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| MASSA 2026 Fleet Championship & Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.6 | 3.25 |
| 2026 ISSA Mallory National Championship | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.1 | 3.32 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| MDISA's T1 - AYC's "Fall Home Coming" Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.3 | 2.10 |
| MASSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| MASSA 2025 Keelboat Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 4.4 | — |
| MASSA 2025 Fall Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.8 | 2.44 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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