| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 4–1 |
| 3 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 2–3 |
| 5 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
The Hague School | Tritons | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,305 team race matches sailed before 2023-09-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 15 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.228 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.74 ± 0.55: an orderly event, more orderly than 94% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 6.14 | 9.14 | 5–0 | 4.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 40% |
| 4 | Maury High School Commodores | 2.87 | 3.34 | 2–3 | 1.7 | +0.47 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | 4.24 | 4.50 | 3–2 | 2.8 | +0.26 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 5.58 | 5.77 | 4–1 | 3.9 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 5 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 2.80 | 1.68 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −1.12 | 0.4 | 91% |
| 6 | The Hague School Tritons | 1.47 | -1.53 | 0–5 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mady Mcgee | Norfolk Academy | 0.36 | 3.36 | 5–0 | 4.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 40% |
| Hunter Wheary | Norfolk Academy | 1.69 | 1.95 | 3–2 | 2.8 | +0.26 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Margaret Poston | Norfolk Academy | 0.79 | 1.05 | 3–2 | 2.8 | +0.26 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Cal King | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.58 | 1.77 | 4–1 | 3.9 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Brandt Adams | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.38 | 0.26 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −1.12 | 0.4 | 91% |
| Alex Salzberg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.96 | -0.16 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −1.12 | 0.4 | 91% |
| Nathan Libby | The Hague School | 0.19 | -2.81 | 0–5 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Thomas Bloys | The Hague School | 0.38 | -2.62 | 0–5 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | 83% | |
| 1 | 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | The Hague School Tritons | 73% | |
| 1 | 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Maury High School Commodores | 89% | |
| 1 | 4 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | The Hague School Tritons | 98% | |
| 1 | 5 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | 74% | |
| 1 | 6 | Maury High School Commodores | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 52% | |
| 1 | 7 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | The Hague School Tritons | 96% | |
| 1 | 8 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 93% | |
| 1 | 9 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | Maury High School Commodores | 75% | |
| 1 | 10 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 89% | |
| 1 | 11 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | The Hague School Tritons | 90% | |
| 1 | 12 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Maury High School Commodores | 93% | |
| 1 | 13 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 76% | |
| 1 | 14 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 58% | |
| 1 | 15 | Maury High School Commodores | The Hague School Tritons | 74% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Commodores | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 RAF | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Commodores | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | James Allgeier '27 Mady Mcgee '27 Sean Trudell '24 |
Marin Soderberg '24 Anna Iacobucci '25 Sabrina Casagrande '25 Addie Lesley '26 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | Cal King '27 Kiana Beachy '24 Maddie Murphy '25 |
Tucker Peltier '26 Emma Horton '25 Finian Bohan '27 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | Eliana Mopper '26 Hunter Wheary '24 Margaret Poston '28 |
Owen Peluso '26 Jack Poynter '25 Amanda Wong '25 |
|
Maury High School | Commodores | Emily Priest '25 Gabby Cloe '24 Tucker Mcgrady '26 |
Unreported Sailor '19 Charlotte Mccoy '24 Madeline Ballard '25 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | Alex Salzberg '25 Brandt Adams '28 David Martin '26 Grant Fernandez '27 Vera Hartz '26 |
Ian Scanlon '27 Joshua Ortiz '27 Iro Catravas '25 Eraj Zaidi '25 |
|
The Hague School | Tritons | Justina Reynolds '24 Nathan Libby '26 Thomas Bloys '24 |
Levi Stillman '25 Nicholas Davis '24 Charlotte Stillman '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
