| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 7–0 |
| 2 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 3–4 |
| 5 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 2–5 |
| 6 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 1–6 |
| 7 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 0–7 |
| 9 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | 3–4 |
| 10 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 2–5 |
| 11 |  |
The Hague School | Tritons | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,814 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 18 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.417 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.73 ± 0.51: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 12% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 6.72 | 9.72 | 5–0 | 4.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 8 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 1.43 | 3.57 | 3–2 | 2.0 | +2.14 | 1.2 | 23% |
| 10 | Poquoson High School Islanders | -1.19 | 0.79 | 2–5 | 0.7 | +1.99 | 1.6 | 14% |
| 7 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 4.30 | 5.16 | 4–1 | 3.7 | +0.85 | 0.1 | 69% |
| 11 | The Hague School Tritons | 0.23 | -1.56 | 1–6 | 2.0 | −1.79 | 1.0 | 97% |
| 9 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | 2.82 | 0.42 | 3–4 | 4.7 | −2.40 | 2.5 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeline Janzen | Christchurch School | 2.27 | 5.27 | 5–0 | 4.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| Gp Keating | Christchurch School | 1.68 | 4.68 | 5–0 | 4.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| Angelo Bellecci | Kecoughtan High School | 0.54 | 2.68 | 3–2 | 2.0 | +2.14 | 1.2 | 23% |
| Brett Clemmey | Poquoson High School | -0.20 | 1.79 | 2–5 | 0.7 | +1.99 | 1.6 | 14% |
| Chase Duhon-Kovach | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.28 | 2.13 | 4–1 | 3.7 | +0.85 | 0.1 | 69% |
| Brandt Adams | Norfolk Collegiate School | 2.01 | 2.86 | 4–1 | 3.7 | +0.85 | 0.1 | 69% |
| Jesse Hanenburg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.95 | 1.80 | 4–1 | 3.7 | +0.85 | 0.1 | 69% |
| Samuel Rogge | The Hague School | 0.13 | -1.67 | 1–6 | 2.0 | −1.79 | 1.0 | 97% |
| Margaret Poston | Norfolk Academy | 0.93 | -1.48 | 3–4 | 4.7 | −2.40 | 2.5 | 99% |
| Grant Fernandez | Norfolk Academy | 0.90 | -1.50 | 3–4 | 4.7 | −2.40 | 2.5 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Warriors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Warriors | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-3-6 |
| 10 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Warriors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Oaks 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Tritons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Commodores | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Oaks 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Commodores | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Islanders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Oaks 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Islanders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 40 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 DNS |
| 43 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | Gp Keating '27 Madeline Janzen '25 Sam De Los Reyes '26 |
Duncan Hardy '27 Chloe Shurr '25 Adelaide Matzky '25 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | Brandt Adams '30 Chase Duhon-Kovach '29 Jesse Hanenburg '30 |
Corrine Todd '28 Emma Horton '25 Owen Peluso '26 |
|
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | Angelo Bellecci '25 Chase Young '28 Kieran Mason '26 |
Piper Cartwright '27 Sullivan Downs '28 Tyler Slemp '25 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | Grant Fernandez '27 Margaret Poston '28 Vera Hartz '26 |
Amanda Wong '25 Juliana Libby '28 Will Poynter '27 |
|
Poquoson High School | Islanders | Brett Clemmey '27 Hunter Walton '25 Jackson Raymond '27 |
Wyatt Raymond '30 Luke Harrell '27 Aiden Westcott '25 |
|
The Hague School | Tritons | Emma Tartiere-Martinez '28 Levi Stillman '25 Samuel Rogge '28 |
Ryan Mouak '28 Aline Hughes '30 Aniyah Lang '28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
