| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 8–0 |
| 2 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 1–7 |
| 6 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 0–5 |
| 7 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | 4–0 |
| 8 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | 3–1 |
| 9 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 4 | 2–2 |
| 10 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 1–3 |
| 11 |  |
The Hague School | Tritons | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,867 team race matches sailed before 2025-09-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 21 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.350 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.26 ± 0.52: a typical event, more orderly than 59% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 7.79 | 10.79 | 8–0 | 7.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 40% |
| 4 | Maury High School Commodores | 2.10 | 4.43 | 2–3 | 0.8 | +2.33 | 1.7 | 14% |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 5.58 | 6.33 | 5–3 | 4.2 | +0.75 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 6.00 | 6.17 | 5–3 | 4.8 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 5 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 4.40 | 2.13 | 1–7 | 2.9 | −2.27 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 6 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 2.23 | -0.77 | 0–5 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wylder Smith | Christchurch School | 2.91 | 5.91 | 8–0 | 7.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 40% |
| Samuel Rogge | Maury High School | 0.32 | 2.76 | 2–2 | 0.8 | +2.44 | 1.8 | 14% |
| Elias Bowes | Maury High School | 0.31 | 2.65 | 2–3 | 0.8 | +2.33 | 1.7 | 14% |
| Grant Fernandez | Norfolk Academy | 1.05 | 1.79 | 5–3 | 4.2 | +0.75 | 0.3 | 40% |
| Andres Gago Varela | Christchurch School | 1.50 | 1.66 | 5–3 | 4.8 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Aaron Griffith | Christchurch School | 1.94 | 2.11 | 5–3 | 4.8 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Wyatt Lipp | Christchurch School | 2.15 | 2.31 | 5–3 | 4.8 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Anna Lenox | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.70 | -0.61 | 1–3 | 1.5 | −1.32 | 0.4 | 93% |
| Chase Duhon-Kovach | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.33 | -0.94 | 1–7 | 2.9 | −2.27 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Charlie Moore | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.31 | -1.69 | 0–5 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
| Madeline Monteith | Hampton Roads Academy | 0.91 | -2.09 | 0–5 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
| Brandt Adams | Norfolk Collegiate School | 2.21 | -0.79 | 0–7 | 2.4 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
| Jesse Hanenburg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.43 | -1.57 | 0–4 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Commodores | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-3-6 DSQ |
| 3 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 4 | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Commodores | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-5-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 DSQ |
| 10 | |
Seahorses 4 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 4 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Oaks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-4-6 RAF |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 4 | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 DSQ,DSQ |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Warriors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 DSQ |
| 28 | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-4-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-3-6 DSQ |
| 29 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 DSQ |
| 31 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | Elliott Lipp '26 Sam De Los Reyes '26 Wylder Smith '27 |
Cara Moss '26 Rivers Hickey '28 Bennett Moss '26 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | Aaron Griffith '27 Andres Gago Varela '27 Wyatt Lipp '28 |
Millicent Branflick '26 Cayetana Fernandez Sanz '28 Cindy Zhang '28 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | Eliana Mopper '26 Grant Fernandez '27 James Allgeier '27 |
Owen Peluso '26 Will Poynter '27 Juliana Libby '28 |
|
Maury High School | Commodores | Annika Fox '27 Elias Bowes '27 Samuel Rogge '28 Tucker Mcgrady '26 |
Colin Moorhouse '27 Rylie Bowen '27 Cooper Longhini '28 Lenox Wakefield '27 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Anna Lenox '28 Brandt Adams '30 Chase Duhon-Kovach '29 Jesse Hanenburg '30 Tucker Peltier '26 |
Mollie Armentrout '28 Corrine Todd '28 Corinne Todd '28 Michael Wattenbarger '27 Finian Bohan '27 |
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | Charlie Moore '27 Josie Brindley '26 Madeline Monteith '29 |
Daphne Ambrosino '27 Jack Duggan '28 Patrick Bielewicz '28 Nicholas Bielewicz '26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
