Christchurch School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.34 (fleet 2.13) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–7 (65%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 5–3 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 2 | 8–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 13–7 against 12.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | VISA Patterson Trophy and Team race Champs | skipper | 1.60 | 2.76 | 5–3 | 3.8 | +1.16 | 0.8 | 28% |
| 2025-10-04 | VISA NCS Team Regatta II | skipper | 1.70 | 0.73 | 3–1 | 3.4 | −0.97 | 0.3 | 91% |
| 2025-09-20 | VISA HCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.50 | 1.66 | 5–3 | 4.8 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Patterson Trophy and Team race Champs | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| VISA NA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.8 | 3.80 |
| VISA Kecoughtan Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.3 | 2.02 |
| VISA CCS Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.1 | 1.45 |
| VISA Norfolk Academy Fleet Race Regatta 2 | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.2 | 0.72 |
| MASSA 2026 Invitational Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.1 | 2.77 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA POQ Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.7 | -0.15 |
| VISA NCS Team Regatta II | Skipper | TR | 4 | 75% | — |
| VISA HCS Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| VISA Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.3 | 3.04 |
| VISA Christchurch Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.8 | 4.01 |
| MASSA 2025 Fall Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.5 | 3.24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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