MASSA 2025 Fall Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 20 29 49
2 Severn School Severn School Admirals 32 39 71
3 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 51 31 82
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 50 39 89
5 Gunston Gunston Herons 40 56 96
6 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 60 41 101
7 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 55 54 109
8 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 48 63 111
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 64 53 117
10 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 54 77 131
11 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 72 64 136
12 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 88 94 182
13 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 95 89 184
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 6 3 4 1 1 2 1 2 20 Andres Gago Varela '27
Cayetana Fernandez Sanz '28
Severn School Severn School Admirals 3 6 9 6 2 1 4 1 32 Will Tweed '28
Char Wilkin '26
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 1 1 5 10 6 6 9 40 Andrew Shingledecker '27
Kate Doffermyre '28
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 7 7 8 3 6 10 2 5 48 William Albert '28
Alexandria Still '27
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 8 9 2 7 5 8 8 3 50 Duncan Hardy '27
Maggie Mays '27
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 8 DSQ 2 9 4 9 4 51 Charlie Marynowski '26
Alex Emblidge '29
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 10 2 3 9 7 5 12 6 54 Brynn Penque '27 [1-8]
Elodie Hellmuth '27 [1-6]
Charlotte Leck '26 [7-8]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 5 5 7 11 3 7 10 7 55 Mary Hayes Cobbum '27 [1-8]
Sloane Fagiolo '27 [1-2, 7-8]
Dylan Cinque '27 [3-6]
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 13 4 5 10 4 3 11 10 60 Nicole Small '27 [1-8]
Amelia Scuorzo '28 [1-2, 5-8]
Joshua Portnoy '26 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 10 12 8 8 9 5 8 64 Cara Lynch '27 [1-8]
Alex Lyng '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Bridget Sweeney '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 12 11 6 4 11 12 3 13 72 Tucker Mayer '29
Tyler Elia '27
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 11 12 11 12 13 11 7 11 88 Aiden Dearman '26
Aiden Solarz '29
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 9 13 10 13 12 13 13 12 95 Lucio Moscati '27
Leonard Vogelsang '29
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2 1 1 5 7 1 8 4 29 Gp Keating '27
Henry Clair '29
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 7 3 3 3 5 8 1 1 31 Matthew Murad '26 [1-8]
Colton Davis '27 [1-2, 7-8]
Corban Burke '27 [3-6]
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 DSQ 2 1 1 5 5 10 39 Caroline (Cc) Carey '28
Isabella Ford '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 4 4 6 2 6 7 2 8 39 Pierson Teer '27
Ayden Claussen '28
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 11 2 4 4 3 3 3 11 41 Dylan Pagonis '26 [1-8]
Deegan Pepe '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Hannah Kitay '29 [3-4]
Joshua Portnoy '26 [7-8]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 8 5 7 11 4 4 7 7 53 Eve Birkelund '28
Christian Bruno '28
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 5 8 8 9 2 9 4 9 54 Ann Martino '26
Emily Julian '28
Gunston Gunston Herons 13 6 10 8 9 2 6 2 56 Preston Allen '27
Ella Von Voss '28
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 3 9 9 10 10 6 11 5 63 Gil Glister '28
Isabel Albert '29
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 6 7 11 7 8 10 12 3 64 Levi Mayer '28 [1-8]
Sophie Kimelberg '26 [1-4, 7-8]
Emmett Benedicto '28 [5-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 9 10 5 6 12 12 10 13 77 Nikhil Ray '26 [1-8]
Dylan Raymundo-Neal, Dylan '27 [1-2, 5-8]
Charlotte Leck '26 [3-4]
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 12 12 12 12 13 13 9 6 89 Theo Moscati '29 [1-8]
Henrey Silvestri '28 [1-4]
Daniel Piazza '26 [5-6]
Luke Hales '29 [7-8]
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 10 11 13 13 11 11 13 12 94 Jack Colburn '29
Ashley Solarz '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2025 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers11335577
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders22446688
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars33557799
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 14466881010
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 25577991111
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings779911111313
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers881010121211
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals991111131322
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons101012121133
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans111113132244
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders1212113355
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers1313224466
GunstonGunston Herons668810101212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers22446688
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders33557799
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars4466881010
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 15577991111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2668810101212
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings881010121211
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers991111131322
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals101012121133
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons111113132244
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans1212113355
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders1313224466
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers11335577
GunstonGunston Herons779911111313
School / Team SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Mary Hayes Cobbum '27 [1-8] Sloane Fagiolo '27 [1-2, 7-8]
Dylan Cinque '27 [3-6]
Cavaliers Ann Martino '26 Emily Julian '28
Canisius High School Canisius High School Charlie Marynowski '26 Alex Emblidge '29
Crusaders Matthew Murad '26 [1-8] Colton Davis '27 [1-2, 7-8]
Corban Burke '27 [3-6]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cara Lynch '27 [1-8] Alex Lyng '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Bridget Sweeney '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Cougars Eve Birkelund '28 Christian Bruno '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Andres Gago Varela '27 Cayetana Fernandez Sanz '28
Seahorses 1 Gp Keating '27 Henry Clair '29
Christchurch School Christchurch School Duncan Hardy '27 Maggie Mays '27
Seahorses 2 Pierson Teer '27 Ayden Claussen '28
Gunston Gunston Andrew Shingledecker '27 Kate Doffermyre '28
Herons Preston Allen '27 Ella Von Voss '28
Nichols School Nichols School Tucker Mayer '29 Tyler Elia '27
Vikings Levi Mayer '28 [1-8] Sophie Kimelberg '26 [1-4, 7-8]
Emmett Benedicto '28 [5-6]
Ranney School Ranney School Nicole Small '27 [1-8] Amelia Scuorzo '28 [1-2, 5-8]
Joshua Portnoy '26 [3-4]
Panthers Dylan Pagonis '26 [1-8] Deegan Pepe '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Hannah Kitay '29 [3-4]
Joshua Portnoy '26 [7-8]
Severn School Severn School Will Tweed '28 Char Wilkin '26
Admirals Caroline (Cc) Carey '28 Isabella Ford '28
Severna Park Severna Park William Albert '28 Alexandria Still '27
Falcons Gil Glister '28 Isabel Albert '29
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Aiden Dearman '26 Aiden Solarz '29
Trojans Jack Colburn '29 Ashley Solarz '28
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Lucio Moscati '27 Leonard Vogelsang '29
Marauders Theo Moscati '29 [1-8] Henrey Silvestri '28 [1-4]
Daniel Piazza '26 [5-6]
Luke Hales '29 [7-8]
Summit High School Summit High School Brynn Penque '27 [1-8] Elodie Hellmuth '27 [1-6]
Charlotte Leck '26 [7-8]
Hilltoppers Nikhil Ray '26 [1-8] Dylan Raymundo-Neal, Dylan '27 [1-2, 5-8]
Charlotte Leck '26 [3-4]

Conditions — 10/25/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1029.3 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From W (261°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1029.3 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn · N 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Buffalo Yacht Club Foundation: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.18 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Buffalo Yacht Club Foundation by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Buffalo Yacht Club Foundation: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →