Ranney School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.49 (fleet 0.75) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–8 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | 1 | 2–2 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 2–4 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 4–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 7–7 against 6.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-06 | NJISA Team Race Meet 1 | skipper | 0.64 | 3.34 | 2–2 | 0.9 | +2.69 | 1.6 | 22% |
| 2025-04-09 | NJISA South Team Race Meet 3 | skipper | 0.81 | -0.10 | 1–3 | 1.4 | −0.91 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 2023-09-28 | NJISA Team Race Meet | skipper | 0.59 | 0.75 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 69% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Nicole Small |  Donovan Catholic High School |
'27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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