| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | 2–0 |
| 2 |  |
Ranney School | Panthers | 1–1 |
| 3 |  |
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | 0–2 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,832 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 3 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.272 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | 1 | 7.17 school +0.18, home +0.20 | Chris Small / Alton Deoliveria 2.51 Cole Buczkowski / Seth Santos 2.32 Jules Buczkowski / Donald Johnston 2.19 1–0 Patrick Kennedy / Matthew Dupree 1.66 1–0 | 96% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.1 |
| 2 | Ranney School Panthers | 3 | 2.91 school +0.17 | Lewis Forrest / Dylan Pagonis 0.81 Jack Pentony / Amelia Scuorzo 1.19 Nicole Small / Anthony Abboud 0.68 | 26% | 1–1 (50%) | +0.5 |
| 3 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 2 | 3.08 school −0.14 | Liam Marcell / Grace Torpey 1.98 Grace Ciak / Annabelle Arcuri 0.71 Julianna Brooksbank / Gianna Deresz 0.50 0–1 Gianna Deresz / Anna Hnatt 0–1 | 28% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.6 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy | 7.17 | 10.17 | 2–0 | 1.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 93% |
| 2 | Ranney School | 2.91 | 5.02 | 1–1 | 0.5 | +2.11 | 0.6 | 50% |
| 3 | Donovan Catholic High School | 3.08 | 0.08 | 0–2 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christian Brothers Academy | Donovan Catholic High School | 97% | |
| 1 | 2 | Christian Brothers Academy | Ranney School | 96% | |
| 1 | 3 | Ranney School | Donovan Catholic High School | 48% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Colts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Griffins | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Colts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Panthers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Griffins | 2-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | Christopher Small '26 Cole Buczkowski '27 Jules Buczkowski '26 Patrick Kennedy '28 |
Alton Deoliveria '26 Seth Santos '27 Donald Johnston '25 Matthew Dupree '25 |
|
Ranney School | Panthers | Jack Pentony '26 Lewis Forrest '25 Nicole Small '27 |
Amelia Scuorzo '28 Dylan Pagonis '26 Anthony Abboud '25 |
|
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | Gianna Deresz '27 Grace Ciak '26 Julianna Brooksbank '28 Liam Marcell '26 |
Anna Hnatt '28 Annabelle Arcuri '27 Gianna Deresz '27 Grace Torpey '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
