| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 1 | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Southern Regional High School | Rams | 3–1 |
| 3 | |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 2 | 2–2 |
| 4 |  |
Ranney School | Panthers | 1–3 |
| 5 |  |
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,923 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 10 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.181 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.53 ± 0.72: a typical event, more orderly than 80% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | 7.67 | 10.68 | 4–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 66% |
| 3 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 3.19 | 4.86 | 2–2 | 1.4 | +1.67 | 0.6 | 44% |
| 2 | Southern Regional High School Rams | 6.67 | 6.26 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.41 | 0.0 | 88% |
| 4 | Ranney School Panthers | 3.28 | 2.37 | 1–3 | 1.4 | −0.91 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 5 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 1.82 | -1.18 | 0–4 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Buczkowski | Christian Brothers Academy | 2.41 | 5.41 | 4–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 66% |
| Kyle Lombardino | Christian Brothers Academy | 0.59 | 2.26 | 2–2 | 1.4 | +1.67 | 0.6 | 44% |
| Greyson Colman | Christian Brothers Academy | 0.41 | 2.08 | 2–2 | 1.4 | +1.67 | 0.6 | 44% |
| Patrick Kennedy | Christian Brothers Academy | 1.66 | 3.33 | 2–2 | 1.4 | +1.67 | 0.6 | 44% |
| Jude Ryon | Southern Regional High School | 2.22 | 1.80 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.41 | 0.0 | 88% |
| Cameron Hart | Donovan Catholic High School | 1.39 | -1.61 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Julianna Brooksbank | Donovan Catholic High School | 0.60 | -2.40 | 0–4 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Catherine Dunn | Donovan Catholic High School | 0.07 | -2.93 | 0–3 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Ranney School Panthers | 97% | |
| 1 | 2 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 99% | |
| 1 | 3 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Southern Regional High School Rams | 71% | |
| 1 | 4 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 97% | |
| 1 | 5 | Ranney School Panthers | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 74% | |
| 1 | 6 | Southern Regional High School Rams | Ranney School Panthers | 93% | |
| 1 | 7 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | Ranney School Panthers | 47% | upset |
| 1 | 8 | Southern Regional High School Rams | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 96% | |
| 1 | 9 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 85% | |
| 1 | 10 | Southern Regional High School Rams | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 94% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Griffins | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Colts 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Griffins | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Colts 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 1 | Christopher Small '26 Cole Buczkowski '27 Jules Buczkowski '26 |
Alton Deoliveria '26 Matthew Dupree '25 Donald Johnston '25 |
|
Southern Regional High School | Rams | Gannon Botwinick '27 Jude Ryon '27 Turner Ryon '25 |
Noah Tallman '25 Evan Colon '27 Belle Placa '25 Ella Linkewich '28 |
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 2 | Greyson Colman '25 Kyle Lombardino '25 Patrick Kennedy '28 |
Joseph Boracchia '28 Jack Slavin '28 Seth Santos '27 |
|
Ranney School | Panthers | Jack Pentony '26 Lewis Forrest '25 Nicole Small '27 |
Amelia Scuorzo '28 Dylan Pagonis '26 Anthony Abboud '25 |
|
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | Cameron Hart '27 Catherine Dunn '28 Grace Ciak '26 Julianna Brooksbank '28 |
Scarlett Colman '26 Annabelle Arcuri '27 Anna Hnatt '28 Oliver Roske '27 Gianna Deresz '27 Richard Mcgowan '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
