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NJISA 2024 TR Fall Series 1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 9 7 16
2 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 4 26 30
3 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 20 12 32
4 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 17 19 36
5 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 31 7 38
6 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 19 22 41
7 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 22 33 55
8 Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 36 25 61
9 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 27 46 73
10 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 39 36 75
11 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 44 42 86
12 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 48 45 93
13 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 50 44 94
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 1 1 1 1 4 Cole Buczkowski '27
Matthew Dupree '25
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 2 2 2 3 9 Turner Ryon '25
Kaylan Hoffacker '26
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 5 5 3 4 17 Lewis Forrest '25 [1-4]
Sophia Behar '25 [1-3]
Ryan Messina '28 [4]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 6 3 5 5 19 Belle Placa '25
Ella Linkewich '28
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 4 4 10 2 20 Liam Marcell '26
Scarlett Colman '26
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 3 6 6 7 22 Kyle Lombardino '25
Alton Deoliveria '26
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 8 7 4 8 27 Greyson Colman '25
Aidan Kenney '26
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 7 10 8 6 31 Rex Salzer '26
Jacob Palombo '27
Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 10 9 7 10 36 Jack Schlenker '26
Leo Van Der Valk '26
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 11 8 9 11 39 Jack Pentony '26 [1-4]
Julien Wong '27 [1-3]
Joshua Portnoy '26 [4]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 9 11 11 13 44 Julianna Brooksbank '28
Grace Torpey '26
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 12 12 12 12 48 Caroline Duffy '25
Margaret Burns '27
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 DNS DNS 13 9 50 Emily Bell '27
Lilly Keenan '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 1 1 1 4 7 Maryn Demand '27
Taylor Sipe '27
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 2 2 2 1 7 Gannon Botwinick '27
Ted Klopman '25
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 4 3 3 2 12 Cameron Hart '27
Anna Hnatt '28
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 6 4 6 3 19 Nicole Small '27 [1-3]
Anthony Abboud '25 [4]
Dylan Pagonis '26 [1-3]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 5 7 4 6 22 Noah Tallman '25
No Show
Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 7 5 8 5 25 James Mccarthy '26
Ryan Amicone '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 3 6 9 8 26 Patrick Kennedy '28
Donald Johnston '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 12 9 5 7 33 Seth Santos '27
Daniel Kuzloski '25
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 8 8 7 13 36 Amelia Scuorzo '28
Keira Mooar '27
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 9 12 12 9 42 Richard Mcgowan '25
Gianna Deresz '27
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 10 13 11 10 44 No Show
No Show
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 11 10 13 11 45 Elizabeth Leonard '28
Sophia Galiano '26
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 13 11 10 12 46 Christopher Quincannon '27
John Mcnamara '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 120202020
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 219191919
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 318181818
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 117171717
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 216161616
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 115151515
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 214141414
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils13131313
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 112121212
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 211111111
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 110101010
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 29999
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs7777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 120202020
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 219191919
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 318181818
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 117171717
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 216161616
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 115151515
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 214141414
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils13131313
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 112121212
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 211111111
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 110101010
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 29999
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs7777

Conditions — 09/11/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1022.4 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From ENE (71°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1022.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Donovan Catholic: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.19)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.16
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 17% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Donovan Catholic by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Donovan Catholic, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →