Toms River South '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.65 (fleet 1.07) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–10 (23%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 0–4 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 1–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 3–10 against 4.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-28 | NJISA Team Race Meet | skipper | 0.85 | 0.90 | 2–4 | 2.0 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2023-04-04 | NJISA Team Race Scrimmage 1 | skipper | 0.74 | -2.25 | 0–4 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
| 2022-10-18 | NJISA Team Race Scrimmage | skipper | 0.67 | 1.56 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.89 | 0.2 | 55% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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