NJISA 2023 Fall Series 5

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 6 4 10
2 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 9 6 15
3 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 9 19 28
4 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 19 10 29
5 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 22 15 37
6 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 20 24 44
7 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 14 34 48
8 Toms River East Toms River East Raiders 29 19 48
9 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 21 35 56
10 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 30 26 56
11 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 2 36 23 59
12 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 35 25 60
13 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 31 45 76
14 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 1 42 34 76
15 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 5 37 41 78
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 1 2 3 6 Christopher Small '26
Matthew Dupree '25
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 2 1 6 9 James Kopack '24
Caroline Felser '24
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 3 5 1 9 Turner Ryon '25
Belle Placa '25
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 5 4 5 14 Ella Demand '24
Maryn Demand '27
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 14 3 2 19 Mitchell Hnatt '24 [1-3]
Kyle Lombardino '25 [1-2]
No Show [3]
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 8 8 4 20 Lewis Forrest '25
Sophia Behar '25
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 4 9 8 21 Gannon Botwinick '27
Scott Tedeschi '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 7 6 9 22 Cole Buczkowski '27 [1-3]
Luke Pennisi '24 [1-2]
No Show [3]
Toms River East Toms River East Raiders 10 7 12 29 Rylie Mcgowan '27
Alissa Maulshagen '27
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 9 11 10 30 Liam Marcell '26
Scarlett Colman '26
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 12 12 7 31 Matthew Moses '24
Daniel Kuzloski '25
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 6 14 15 35 Joseph Krajewski '26
Mollie Smith '25
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 2 13 10 13 36 Allison Beisel '24
Giada Incognito '24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 5 11 15 11 37 Greyson Colman '25
Aidan Kenney '26
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 1 15 13 14 42 Margaret Burns '27
Evelyn Magee '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 1 2 1 4 Jules Buczkowski '26
Alton Deoliveria '26
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 3 1 2 6 Jude Ryon '27
Noah Tallman '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 4 3 3 10 Kyle Lombardino '25
Donald Johnston '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 6 4 5 15 Luke Pennisi '24
Daniel Stephan '24
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 2 9 8 19 Grace Ciak '26
Annabelle Arcuri '27
Toms River East Toms River East Raiders 5 7 7 19 Alissa Maulshagen '27
No Show
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 2 7 5 11 23 Juliet Davis '28
Alex Dacosta '24
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 9 6 9 24 Jack Pentony '26
Joshua Portnoy '26
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 13 8 4 25 Jacob Palombo '26
Cameron Hart '27
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 10 10 6 26 Nicole Small '27
Richard Mcgowan '25
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 1 8 12 14 34 Caroline Duffy '25
Julianna Walsh '24
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 11 13 10 34 Rex Salzer '26
Ava Mcnabb '24
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 12 11 12 35 Gabriel Vasslides '26
Shannon Underwood '27
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 5 14 14 13 41 Christopher Quincannon '27
Seth Santos '27
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 15 15 15 45 Andrew Dinger '24
Dylan Thomas '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 1141414
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 2131313
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 3121212
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 4111111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 5101010
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 1999
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 2666
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers555
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams333
Toms River EastToms River East Raiders222
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners111
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 1202020
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 2191919
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs 1181818
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs 2171717

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 1141414
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 2131313
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 3121212
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 4111111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 5101010
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 1999
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 2666
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers555
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams333
Toms River EastToms River East Raiders222
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners111
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 1202020
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 2191919
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs 1181818
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs 2171717
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Christopher Small '26 Matthew Dupree '25
Colts 1 Jules Buczkowski '26 Alton Deoliveria '26
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Cole Buczkowski '27 [1-3] Luke Pennisi '24 [1-2]
No Show [3]
Colts 2 Luke Pennisi '24 Daniel Stephan '24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Mitchell Hnatt '24 [1-3] Kyle Lombardino '25 [1-2]
No Show [3]
Colts 3 Kyle Lombardino '25 Donald Johnston '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Matthew Moses '24 Daniel Kuzloski '25
Colts 4 Andrew Dinger '24 Dylan Thomas '27
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Greyson Colman '25 Aidan Kenney '26
Colts 5 Christopher Quincannon '27 Seth Santos '27
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School James Kopack '24 Caroline Felser '24
Griffins 1 Grace Ciak '26 Annabelle Arcuri '27
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Liam Marcell '26 Scarlett Colman '26
Griffins 2 Nicole Small '27 Richard Mcgowan '25
Ranney School Ranney School Lewis Forrest '25 Sophia Behar '25
Panthers Jack Pentony '26 Joshua Portnoy '26
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Turner Ryon '25 Belle Placa '25
Rams Jude Ryon '27 Noah Tallman '25
Toms River East Toms River East Rylie Mcgowan '27 Alissa Maulshagen '27
Raiders Alissa Maulshagen '27 No Show
Toms River North Toms River North Gannon Botwinick '27 Scott Tedeschi '25
Mariners Gabriel Vasslides '26 Shannon Underwood '27
Toms River South Toms River South Ella Demand '24 Maryn Demand '27
Indians 1 Rex Salzer '26 Ava Mcnabb '24
Toms River South Toms River South Joseph Krajewski '26 Mollie Smith '25
Indians 2 Jacob Palombo '26 Cameron Hart '27
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Margaret Burns '27 Evelyn Magee '26
Monarchs 1 Caroline Duffy '25 Julianna Walsh '24
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Allison Beisel '24 Giada Incognito '24
Monarchs 2 Juliet Davis '28 Alex Dacosta '24

Conditions — 10/11/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1011.5 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From W (267°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1011.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christian Brothers: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.09 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →