NJISA 2022 Fall Series 3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 5 22 27
2 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 23 7 30
3 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 20 20 40
4 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 33 12 45
5 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 20 27 47
6 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 11 38 49
7 Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 37 14 51
8 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 22 30 52
9 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 40 21 61
10 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 24 43 67
11 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 29 40 69
12 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 49 47 96
13 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 53 44 97
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 1 2 1 1 5 James Kopack '24
Kaitlyn Di Dia '24
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 3 4 2 2 11 Kevin Brooksbank '23
Nora Ciak '23
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 8 3 7 20 Ella Demand '24
Mollie Smith '25
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 7 3 5 5 20 Belle Placa '25
Natalie Shaw '23
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 8 1 7 6 22 Iliana Vasslides '23
Stephanie Maulshagen '23
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 6 6 8 3 23 Bryce Vitiello '23
Nicholas Cunha '23
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 4 5 11 4 24 Thomas Roeber '23
Jules Buczkowski '26
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 5 7 6 11 29 Grace Bray '23
Sophia Behar '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 10 10 4 9 33 Luke Pennisi '24
Erick Shi '24
Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 9 9 9 10 37 Matt Leopold '23
Ryan Amicone '25
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 11 11 10 8 40 Jack Whitman '23
Matthew Dupree '25
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 12 12 13 12 49 Margaret Burns '27 [1-2]
Greta Senft '24 [3-4]
Mackenzie Boles '27 [1-2]
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils DNS DNS 12 13 53 Seamus Carolan '25
Sabela Malki '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 1 1 1 4 7 Christopher Small '26
Kyle Lombardino '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 4 2 3 3 12 Mitchell Hnatt '24
Daniel Stephan '24
Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 2 4 7 1 14 James Mccarthy '26
Jack Schlenker '26
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 3 6 4 7 20 Erin Little '24
Noah Tallman '25
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 7 10 2 2 21 Lewis Forrest '25
Anthony Abboud '25
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 5 3 6 8 22 Grace Ciak '26
Scarlett Colman '26
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 6 7 9 5 27 Rex Salzer '26 [1-4]
Jack Krajewski '26 [1-2]
Chase Kalwinsky '26 [3-4]
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 8 5 11 6 30 Jackson Bubnowski '26
Scott Tedeschi '25
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 11 13 5 9 38 Richard Mcgowan '25
Dan Drennan '24
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 10 8 12 10 40 Jack Pentony '26
Quinian Miller '26
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 12 11 8 12 43 Andrew Dinger '24
Donald Johnston '25
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils DNS 9 10 11 44 Anna Robertson '24
Mack Robertson '26
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 9 12 13 13 47 Riley Mueller '27
Vanessa Mccartin '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 17777
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 29999
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 38888
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 16666
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 25555
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 14444
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 23333
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils2222
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams1111
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners20202020
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians19191919
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs18181818
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils17171717

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 17777
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 29999
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 38888
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 16666
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 25555
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 14444
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 23333
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils2222
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams1111
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners20202020
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians19191919
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs18181818
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils17171717

Conditions — 09/28/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From NW (307°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1019.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Donovan Catholic: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.18)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.18 means a rating gap counts about 15% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Donovan Catholic by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Donovan Catholic, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →