NJISA 2022 Fall Series 2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 8 23 31
2 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 15 17 32
3 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 20 14 34
4 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 29 10 39
5 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 22 20 42
6 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 35 16 51
7 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 17 46 63
8 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 26 39 65
9 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 39 26 65
10 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 35 37 72
11 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 38 37 75
12 Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 45 30 75
13 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 43 52 95
14 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 48 48 96
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 2 2 3 1 8 James Kopack '24
Liam Marcell '26
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 1 8 4 2 15 Bryce Vitiello '23
Kyle Lombardino '25
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 3 3 5 6 17 Kevin Brooksbank '23 [1-4]
Nicholas Fatigate '24 [1-2]
Kaitlyn Di Dia '24 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 5 4 8 3 20 Belle Placa '25
No Show
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 12 5 1 4 22 Turner Ryon '25
Natalie Shaw '23
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 4 7 7 8 26 Iliana Vasslides '23
Scott Tedeschi '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 9 1 6 13 29 Noah Kuzloski '23
Daniel Stephan '24
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 7 9 10 9 35 Grace Bray '23
Anthony Abboud '25
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 8 10 12 5 35 Jack Whitman '23
Lewis Forrest '25
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 10 6 11 11 38 Ella Demand '24
Mollie Smith '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 13 12 2 12 39 Luke Pennisi '24
Martin Horowitz '23
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 14 13 9 7 43 Caroline Duffy '25 [1-2]
Allison Beisel '24 [3-4]
Evelyn Magee '26 [1-2]
Alex Dacosta '24 [3-4]
Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 11 11 13 10 45 Matt Leopold '23
Ryan Amicone '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 6 14 14 14 48 Matthew Wilhelm '24
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 4 2 3 1 10 Mitchell Hnatt '24
Ryan Mullholland '25
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 2 3 6 3 14 Kaylan Hoffacker '26
No Show
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 1 4 4 7 16 Jack Pentony '26 [1-4]
Matthew Dupree '25 [1-2]
Joshua Portnoy '26 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 5 1 1 10 17 Christopher Small '26
Nicholas Cunha '23
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 6 8 2 4 20 Erin Little '24
Noah Tallman '25
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 7 7 7 2 23 Grace Ciak '26
Richard Mcgowan '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 8 5 5 8 26 Jules Buczkowski '26
Donald Johnston '25
Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 3 10 8 9 30 James Mccarthy '26
Jack Schlenker '26
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 11 6 9 11 37 Rex Salzer '26 [1-2]
Jack Krajewski '26 [3-4]
Chase Kalwinsky '26 [1-2]
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 13 9 BKD 6 37 Dylan Pagonis '26 [1-4]
Sophia Behar '25 [1-2]
Quinian Miller '26 [3-4]
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 10 13 11 5 39 Jackson Bubnowski '26
Blake Jankowski '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 9 14 10 13 46 Scarlett Colman '26
Dan Drennan '24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 12 12 12 12 48 Andrew Dinger '24
John Flannery '23
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 14 11 13 14 52 Riley Mueller '27 [1-2]
Evelyn Magee '26 [3-4]
Vanessa Mccartin '26 [1-2]
Caroline Duffy '25 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 11111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 22222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 33333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 44444
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 15555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 26666
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 17777
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 28888
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils9999
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 110101010
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 212121212
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners13131313
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians14141414
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs15151515

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 11111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 22222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 33333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 44444
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 15555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 26666
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 17777
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 28888
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils9999
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 110101010
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 212121212
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners13131313
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians14141414
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs15151515
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Bryce Vitiello '23 Kyle Lombardino '25
Colts 1 Christopher Small '26 Nicholas Cunha '23
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Noah Kuzloski '23 Daniel Stephan '24
Colts 2 Mitchell Hnatt '24 Ryan Mullholland '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Luke Pennisi '24 Martin Horowitz '23
Colts 3 Jules Buczkowski '26 Donald Johnston '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Matthew Wilhelm '24 No Show
Colts 4 Andrew Dinger '24 John Flannery '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School James Kopack '24 Liam Marcell '26
Griffins 1 Grace Ciak '26 Richard Mcgowan '25
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Kevin Brooksbank '23 [1-4] Nicholas Fatigate '24 [1-2]
Kaitlyn Di Dia '24 [3-4]
Griffins 2 Scarlett Colman '26 Dan Drennan '24
Ranney School Ranney School Grace Bray '23 Anthony Abboud '25
Panthers 1 Dylan Pagonis '26 [1-4] Sophia Behar '25 [1-2]
Quinian Miller '26 [3-4]
Ranney School Ranney School Jack Whitman '23 Lewis Forrest '25
Panthers 2 Jack Pentony '26 [1-4] Matthew Dupree '25 [1-2]
Joshua Portnoy '26 [3-4]
Ridge High School Ridge High School Matt Leopold '23 Ryan Amicone '25
Red Devils James Mccarthy '26 Jack Schlenker '26
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Turner Ryon '25 Natalie Shaw '23
Rams 1 Erin Little '24 Noah Tallman '25
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Belle Placa '25 No Show
Rams 2 Kaylan Hoffacker '26 No Show
Toms River North Toms River North Iliana Vasslides '23 Scott Tedeschi '25
Mariners Jackson Bubnowski '26 Blake Jankowski '23
Toms River South Toms River South Ella Demand '24 Mollie Smith '25
Indians Rex Salzer '26 [1-2]
Jack Krajewski '26 [3-4]
Chase Kalwinsky '26 [1-2]
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Caroline Duffy '25 [1-2]
Allison Beisel '24 [3-4]
Evelyn Magee '26 [1-2]
Alex Dacosta '24 [3-4]
Monarchs Riley Mueller '27 [1-2]
Evelyn Magee '26 [3-4]
Vanessa Mccartin '26 [1-2]
Caroline Duffy '25 [3-4]

Conditions — 09/21/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1013.3 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From WNW (282°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover19% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1013.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christian Brothers: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.15)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.13
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.42 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →