| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | 3–0 |
| 2 |  |
Ranney School | Panthers | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
Toms River South | Indians | 1–2 |
| 4 |  |
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,097 team race matches sailed before 2022-10-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 4 of 6 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.599 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | 1 | 6.23 school −0.25, home +0.12 | Bryce Vitiello / Mitchell Hnatt Noah Kuzloski / Kyle Lombardino Chris Small / Nicholas Cunha | 92% | 3–0 (100%) | +0.2 |
| 2 | Ranney School Panthers | 3 | 2.62 | Jack Whitman / Tomas Mora 0.85 Grace Bray / Sophia Behar Jack Pentony / Matthew Dupree | 31% | 2–1 (67%) | +1.1 |
| 3 | Toms River South Indians | 4 | 2.12 | Ella Demand / Mollie Smith Rex Salzer / Chase Kalwinsky Jack Krajewski / Sophia Delucca | 22% | 1–2 (33%) | +0.3 |
| 4 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 2 | 3.82 | Kevin Brooksbank / Nora Ciak 2.03 Liam Marcell / Nicholas Fatigate Grace Ciak / Richard Mcgowan | 55% | 0–3 (0%) | −1.6 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy | 6.23 | 9.23 | 3–0 | 2.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 79% |
| 2 | Ranney School | 2.62 | 5.28 | 2–1 | 0.9 | +2.66 | 1.6 | 20% |
| 3 | Toms River South | 2.12 | 3.01 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.89 | 0.2 | 55% |
| 4 | Donovan Catholic High School | 3.82 | 0.82 | 0–3 | 1.6 | ≤−3.00 | 3.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Salzer | Toms River South | 0.67 | 1.56 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.89 | 0.2 | 55% |
| Jack Krajewski | Toms River South | 0.16 | 1.05 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.89 | 0.2 | 55% |
| Grace Ciak | Donovan Catholic High School | 0.70 | -2.30 | 0–3 | 1.6 | ≤−3.00 | 3.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ranney School | Donovan Catholic High School | 28% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | Christian Brothers Academy | Toms River South | 96% | |
| 1 | 3 | Toms River South | Donovan Catholic High School | 21% | upset |
| 1 | 4 | Christian Brothers Academy | Ranney School | 94% | |
| 1 | 5 | Ranney School | Toms River South | 59% | |
| 1 | 6 | Christian Brothers Academy | Donovan Catholic High School | 87% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Griffins | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Colts | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Indians | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Indians | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Colts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Indians | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Colts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Griffins | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | Bryce Vitiello '23 Christopher Small '26 Noah Kuzloski '23 |
Mitchell Hnatt '24 Nicholas Cunha '23 Kyle Lombardino '25 |
|
Ranney School | Panthers | Grace Bray '23 Jack Pentony '26 Jack Whitman '23 |
Sophia Behar '25 Matthew Dupree '25 Tomas Mora '23 |
|
Toms River South | Indians | Ella Demand '24 Jack Krajewski '26 Rex Salzer '26 |
Mollie Smith '25 Sophia Delucca '24 Chase Kalwinsky '26 |
|
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | Grace Ciak '26 Kevin Brooksbank '23 Liam Marcell '26 |
Richard Mcgowan '25 Nora Ciak '23 Nicholas Fatigate '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
