NJISA 2023 Fall Series 1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 7 8 15
2 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 13 4 17
3 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 15 7 22
4 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 8 16 24
5 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 23 23 46
6 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 16 30 46
7 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 29 25 54
8 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 31 24 55
9 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 32 26 58
10 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 15 44 59
11 Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 29 30 59
12 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 2 35 26 61
13 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 35 27 62
14 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 27 43 70
15 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 1 45 27 72
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 2 3 2 7 Jude Ryon '27 [1-3]
Erin Little '24 [1-2]
No Show [3]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 3 1 4 8 Christopher Small '26 [1-3]
Luke Pennisi '24 [1-2]
Alton Deoliveria '26 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 1 11 1 13 James Kopack '24
Annabelle Arcuri '27
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 4 5 6 15 Cole Buczkowski '27
Daniel Stephan '24
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 8 4 3 15 Turner Ryon '25 [1-3]
Belle Placa '25 [1-2]
No Show [3]
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 7 2 7 16 Gannon Botwinick '27
Scott Tedeschi '25
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 6 6 11 23 Grace Ciak '26
Cameron Hart '27
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 10 12 5 27 Jules Buczkowski '26
Kyle Lombardino '25
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 12 9 8 29 Ella Demand '24
Maryn Demand '27
Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 13 7 9 29 Jack Schlenker '26
Jayan Philip '26
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 11 10 10 31 Joseph Krajewski '26
Chase Kalwinsky '26
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 5 13 14 32 Lewis Forrest '25 [1-2]
Jack Pentony '26 [3]
Dylan Pagonis '26 [1-2]
Joshua Portnoy '26 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 9 14 12 35 Mitchell Hnatt '24
Matthew Dupree '25
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 2 14 8 13 35 Caroline Duffy '25
Julianna Walsh '24
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 1 15 15 15 45 Sophia Galiano '26 [1-2]
Margaret Burns '27 [3]
Evelyn Magee '26 [1-2]
Juliet Davis '28 [3]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 1 2 1 4 Liam Marcell '26
Scarlett Colman '26
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 3 1 3 7 Belle Placa '25
Kaylan Hoffacker '26
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 2 4 2 8 Erin Little '24
Noah Tallman '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 4 3 9 16 Luke Pennisi '24 [1-3]
Alton Deoliveria '26 [1-2]
Aidan Kenney '26 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 9 10 4 23 Nicole Small '27 [1-3]
Nicholas Fatigate '24 [1-2]
Richard Mcgowan '25 [3]
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 12 6 6 24 Jacob Palombo '26
Liam Figueras '27
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 5 13 7 25 Rex Salzer '26
Mollie Smith '25
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 7 9 10 26 Anthony Abboud '25
Sophia Behar '25
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 2 8 7 11 26 Allison Beisel '24
Greta Senft '24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 6 8 13 27 Matthew Moses '24
Joseph Velardi '26
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 1 10 12 5 27 Alex Dacosta '24
Samantha Goldberg '26
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 11 11 8 30 Jackson Bubnowski '26 [1-3]
Gabriel Vasslides '26 [1-2]
Mariana Crescitelli '27 [3]
Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 13 5 12 30 James Mccarthy '26 [1-2]
Matthew Moschello '26 [3]
Matthew Moschello '26 [1-2]
James Mccarthy '26 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 15 14 14 43 Greyson Colman '25
Erick Shi '24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 14 15 15 44 Andrew Dinger '24
Donald Johnston '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 1111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 2222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 3333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 4444
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 1555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 2666
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers888
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils999
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 1101010
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 2111111
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners121212
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 1131313
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 2777
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs 1141414
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs 2151515

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 1111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 2222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 3333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 4444
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 1555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 2666
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers888
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils999
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 1101010
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 2111111
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners121212
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 1131313
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 2777
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs 1141414
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs 2151515
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Christopher Small '26 [1-3] Luke Pennisi '24 [1-2]
Alton Deoliveria '26 [3]
Colts 1 Luke Pennisi '24 [1-3] Alton Deoliveria '26 [1-2]
Aidan Kenney '26 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Mitchell Hnatt '24 Matthew Dupree '25
Colts 2 Matthew Moses '24 Joseph Velardi '26
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Jules Buczkowski '26 Kyle Lombardino '25
Colts 3 Greyson Colman '25 Erick Shi '24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Cole Buczkowski '27 Daniel Stephan '24
Colts 4 Andrew Dinger '24 Donald Johnston '25
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School James Kopack '24 Annabelle Arcuri '27
Griffins 1 Liam Marcell '26 Scarlett Colman '26
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Grace Ciak '26 Cameron Hart '27
Griffins 2 Nicole Small '27 [1-3] Nicholas Fatigate '24 [1-2]
Richard Mcgowan '25 [3]
Ranney School Ranney School Lewis Forrest '25 [1-2]
Jack Pentony '26 [3]
Dylan Pagonis '26 [1-2]
Joshua Portnoy '26 [3]
Panthers Anthony Abboud '25 Sophia Behar '25
Ridge High School Ridge High School Jack Schlenker '26 Jayan Philip '26
Red Devils James Mccarthy '26 [1-2]
Matthew Moschello '26 [3]
Matthew Moschello '26 [1-2]
James Mccarthy '26 [3]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Turner Ryon '25 [1-3] Belle Placa '25 [1-2]
No Show [3]
Rams 1 Belle Placa '25 Kaylan Hoffacker '26
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Jude Ryon '27 [1-3] Erin Little '24 [1-2]
No Show [3]
Rams 2 Erin Little '24 Noah Tallman '25
Toms River North Toms River North Gannon Botwinick '27 Scott Tedeschi '25
Mariners Jackson Bubnowski '26 [1-3] Gabriel Vasslides '26 [1-2]
Mariana Crescitelli '27 [3]
Toms River South Toms River South Ella Demand '24 Maryn Demand '27
Indians 1 Rex Salzer '26 Mollie Smith '25
Toms River South Toms River South Joseph Krajewski '26 Chase Kalwinsky '26
Indians 2 Jacob Palombo '26 Liam Figueras '27
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Sophia Galiano '26 [1-2]
Margaret Burns '27 [3]
Evelyn Magee '26 [1-2]
Juliet Davis '28 [3]
Monarchs 1 Alex Dacosta '24 Samantha Goldberg '26
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Caroline Duffy '25 Julianna Walsh '24
Monarchs 2 Allison Beisel '24 Greta Senft '24

Conditions — 09/13/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1012.8 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From W (261°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine6.9 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1012.8 hPa Rain0.53 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christian Brothers: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →