| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 1 | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Ranney School | Panthers | 2–2 |
| 4 | |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 2 | 1–3 |
| 5 |  |
Toms River South | Indians | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,382 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 10 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.316 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.48 ± 0.69: a typical event, more orderly than 75% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | 1 | 5.84 school −0.20, home +0.11 | Noah Kuzloski / Luke Pennisi 1.90 Chris Small / Kyle Lombardino 2.56 Jules Buczkowski / Nicholas Cunha | 91% | 4–0 (100%) | +0.4 |
| 2 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 2 | 3.79 school −0.24 | Kevin Brooksbank / Liam Marcell 1.92 Richard Mcgowan / Nicholas Fatigate James Kopack / Bridget Felser 2.38 2–1 James Kopack / Caroline Felser 2.50 1–0 | 60% | 3–1 (75%) | +0.6 |
| 3 | Ranney School Panthers | 3 | 3.03 school +0.16 | Jack Whitman / Dylan Pagonis 1.01 Grace Bray / Sophia Behar 1.15 Lewis Forrest / Quinian Miller | 46% | 2–2 (50%) | +0.2 |
| 4 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 5 | 1.46 school −0.20, home +0.11 | Thomas Roeber / Ryan Mullholland Matthew Moses / Erick Shi Matthew Wilhelm / Donald Johnston | 18% | 1–3 (25%) | +0.3 |
| 5 | Toms River South Indians | 4 | 2.42 school +0.12 | Ella Demand / Ava Mcnabb 1.33 Mollie Smith / Chase Kalwinsky Rex Salzer / Cali Krean 0.74 | 35% | 0–4 (0%) | −1.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | 5.84 | 8.84 | 4–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 69% |
| 2 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 3.79 | 5.05 | 3–1 | 2.4 | +1.26 | 0.4 | 49% |
| 4 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 1.46 | 2.05 | 1–3 | 0.7 | +0.59 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 3 | Ranney School Panthers | 3.03 | 3.36 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.33 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 5 | Toms River South Indians | 2.42 | -0.58 | 0–4 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Mcgowan | Donovan Catholic High School | -0.34 | 0.92 | 3–1 | 2.4 | +1.26 | 0.4 | 49% |
| Matthew Moses | Christian Brothers Academy | 0.47 | 1.06 | 1–3 | 0.7 | +0.59 | 0.1 | 56% |
| Matthew Wilhelm | Christian Brothers Academy | -0.02 | 0.57 | 1–3 | 0.7 | +0.59 | 0.1 | 56% |
| Mollie Smith | Toms River South | 0.14 | -2.86 | 0–4 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
| Rex Salzer | Toms River South | 0.74 | -2.25 | 0–4 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Toms River South Indians | 93% | |
| 1 | 2 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | Ranney School Panthers | 67% | |
| 1 | 3 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 97% | |
| 1 | 4 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | Toms River South Indians | 74% | |
| 1 | 5 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Ranney School Panthers | 90% | |
| 1 | 6 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | Toms River South Indians | 31% | upset |
| 1 | 7 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 84% | |
| 1 | 8 | Ranney School Panthers | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 77% | |
| 1 | 9 | Ranney School Panthers | Toms River South Indians | 62% | |
| 1 | 10 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 85% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Indians | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Griffins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Griffins | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Indians | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Colts 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Indians | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Panthers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Indians | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Griffins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 1 | Christopher Small '26 Jules Buczkowski '26 Noah Kuzloski '23 |
Kyle Lombardino '25 Nicholas Cunha '23 Luke Pennisi '24 |
|
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | James Kopack '24 Kevin Brooksbank '23 Richard Mcgowan '25 |
Bridget Felser '26 Caroline Felser '24 Liam Marcell '26 Nicholas Fatigate '24 |
|
Ranney School | Panthers | Grace Bray '23 Jack Whitman '23 Lewis Forrest '25 |
Sophia Behar '25 Dylan Pagonis '26 Quinian Miller '26 |
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 2 | Matthew Moses '24 Matthew Wilhelm '24 Thomas Roeber '23 |
Erick Shi '24 Donald Johnston '25 Ryan Mullholland '25 |
|
Toms River South | Indians | Ella Demand '24 Mollie Smith '25 Rex Salzer '26 |
Ava Mcnabb '24 Chase Kalwinsky '26 Cali Krean '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
