NJISA 2022 Fall Series 5

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 11 14 25
2 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 16 12 28
3 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 15 25 40
4 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 32 11 43
5 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 31 20 51
6 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 34 17 51
7 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 5 52 57
8 Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 33 29 62
9 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 26 39 65
10 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 32 39 71
11 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 31 42 73
12 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 47 31 78
13 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 56 35 91
14 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 53 54 107
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 2 1 1 1 5 Christopher Small '26
Nicholas Cunha '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 5 2 2 2 11 Kevin Brooksbank '23
Nora Ciak '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 6 3 3 3 15 James Kopack '24
Morgan Poskay '26
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 1 4 7 4 16 Bryce Vitiello '23 [1-4]
Mitchell Hnatt '24 [1-2]
Luke Pennisi '24 [3-4]
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 7 6 4 9 26 Grace Bray '23
Sophia Behar '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 3 7 9 12 31 Noah Kuzloski '23
Kyle Lombardino '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 9 9 5 8 31 Andrew Chiles '23
Donald Johnston '25
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 4 11 6 11 32 Turner Ryon '25
Natalie Shaw '23
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 8 10 8 6 32 Belle Placa '25
No Show
Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 10 5 11 7 33 Matt Leopold '23
Ryan Amicone '25
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 11 8 10 5 34 Ella Demand '24
Mollie Smith '25
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 12 13 12 10 47 Jack Whitman '23
Tomas Mora '23
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 13 12 14 14 53 Sophia Galiano '26
Giada Incognito '24
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils DNS DNS 13 13 56 Mack Robertson '26
Anna Robertson '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 1 4 3 3 11 Erin Little '24
Noah Tallman '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 4 5 2 1 12 Mitchell Hnatt '24 [1-4]
Luke Pennisi '24 [1-2]
Alton Deoliveria '26 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 3 3 4 4 14 Grace Ciak '26 [1-4]
Dan Drennan '24 [1-2]
Bridget Felser '26 [3-4]
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 1 7 7 17 Rex Salzer '26 [1-4]
Jack Krajewski '26 [1-2]
Chase Kalwinsky '26 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 8 2 1 9 20 Jules Buczkowski '26
Daniel Stephan '24
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 9 9 5 2 25 Liam Marcell '26 [1-4]
Richard Mcgowan '25 [1-2]
Kaitlyn Di Dia '24 [3-4]
Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 5 7 9 8 29 James Mccarthy '26
Jack Schlenker '26
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 12 8 6 5 31 Jack Pentony '26
Matthew Dupree '25
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 10 6 8 11 35 Seamus Carolan '25
Sabela Malki '26
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 6 10 11 12 39 Kaylan Hoffacker '26
No Show
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 11 12 10 6 39 Anthony Abboud '25 [1-2]
Lewis Forrest '25 [3-4]
Dylan Pagonis '26 [1-2]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 7 11 14 10 42 Matthew Wilhelm '24 [1-2]
Greyson Colman '25 [3-4]
Martin Horowitz '23 [1-2]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 13 13 12 14 52 Andrew Dinger '24
Aidan Kenney '26
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 14 14 13 13 54 Evelyn Magee '26
Isabella Incognito '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 11111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 22222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 33333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 44444
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 15555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 26666
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 17777
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 28888
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils9999
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 112121212
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 213131313
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians15151515
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs16161616
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils17171717

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 11111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 22222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 33333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 44444
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 15555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 26666
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 17777
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 28888
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils9999
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 112121212
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 213131313
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians15151515
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs16161616
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils17171717
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Bryce Vitiello '23 [1-4] Mitchell Hnatt '24 [1-2]
Luke Pennisi '24 [3-4]
Colts 1 Mitchell Hnatt '24 [1-4] Luke Pennisi '24 [1-2]
Alton Deoliveria '26 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Noah Kuzloski '23 Kyle Lombardino '25
Colts 2 Jules Buczkowski '26 Daniel Stephan '24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Christopher Small '26 Nicholas Cunha '23
Colts 3 Andrew Dinger '24 Aidan Kenney '26
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Andrew Chiles '23 Donald Johnston '25
Colts 4 Matthew Wilhelm '24 [1-2]
Greyson Colman '25 [3-4]
Martin Horowitz '23 [1-2]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School James Kopack '24 Morgan Poskay '26
Griffins 1 Liam Marcell '26 [1-4] Richard Mcgowan '25 [1-2]
Kaitlyn Di Dia '24 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Kevin Brooksbank '23 Nora Ciak '23
Griffins 2 Grace Ciak '26 [1-4] Dan Drennan '24 [1-2]
Bridget Felser '26 [3-4]
Ranney School Ranney School Grace Bray '23 Sophia Behar '25
Panthers 1 Anthony Abboud '25 [1-2]
Lewis Forrest '25 [3-4]
Dylan Pagonis '26 [1-2]
Ranney School Ranney School Jack Whitman '23 Tomas Mora '23
Panthers 2 Jack Pentony '26 Matthew Dupree '25
Ridge High School Ridge High School Matt Leopold '23 Ryan Amicone '25
Red Devils James Mccarthy '26 Jack Schlenker '26
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Turner Ryon '25 Natalie Shaw '23
Rams 1 Erin Little '24 Noah Tallman '25
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Belle Placa '25 No Show
Rams 2 Kaylan Hoffacker '26 No Show
Toms River South Toms River South Ella Demand '24 Mollie Smith '25
Indians Rex Salzer '26 [1-4] Jack Krajewski '26 [1-2]
Chase Kalwinsky '26 [3-4]
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Sophia Galiano '26 Giada Incognito '24
Monarchs Evelyn Magee '26 Isabella Incognito '23
Westfield High School Westfield High School Mack Robertson '26 Anna Robertson '24
Blue Devils Seamus Carolan '25 Sabela Malki '26

Conditions — 10/12/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1023.0 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 20.8 kn
From S (184°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1023.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Donovan Catholic: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Donovan Catholic by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Donovan Catholic, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →