| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
Toms River South | Indians 1 | 2–4 |
| 4 | |
Toms River South | Indians 2 | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,320 team race matches sailed before 2023-09-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 12 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.163 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.69 ± 0.59: an orderly event, more orderly than 92% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | 1 | 6.05 school −0.12, home +0.20 | Mitchell Hnatt / Daniel Stephan Chris Small / Luke Pennisi 2.69 Jules Buczkowski / Kyle Lombardino 1.61 | 90% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.6 |
| 2 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 2 | 4.46 school −0.17 | James Kopack / Caroline Felser 2.61 Liam Marcell / Scarlett Colman 1.28 Nicole Small / Annabelle Arcuri | 65% | 4–2 (67%) | +0.1 |
| 3 | Toms River South Indians 1 | 3 | 2.63 school −0.13 | Ella Demand / Maryn Demand 1.42 Rex Salzer / Ava Mcnabb 0.85 Joseph Krajewski / Mollie Smith | 33% | 2–4 (33%) | +0.0 |
| 4 | Toms River South Indians 2 | 4 | 1.40 school −0.13 | Jacob Palombo / Chase Kalwinsky Cameron Hart / Nicholas Fatigate Scott Tedeschi / Shannon Underwood | 13% | 0–6 (0%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | 6.05 | 9.05 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 50% |
| 2 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 4.46 | 4.63 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 3 | Toms River South Indians 1 | 2.63 | 2.69 | 2–4 | 2.0 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 4 | Toms River South Indians 2 | 1.40 | -1.60 | 0–6 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Salzer | Toms River South | 0.85 | 0.90 | 2–4 | 2.0 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Joseph Krajewski | Toms River South | 0.37 | 0.43 | 2–4 | 2.0 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Jacob Palombo | Toms River South | 0.38 | -2.62 | 0–6 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Cameron Hart | Toms River South | 0.52 | -2.48 | 0–6 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Scott Tedeschi | Toms River South | 0.45 | -2.55 | 0–6 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | Toms River South Indians 1 | 80% | |
| 1 | 2 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | Toms River South Indians 2 | 98% | |
| 1 | 3 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | Toms River South Indians 2 | 92% | |
| 1 | 4 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | Toms River South Indians 1 | 94% | |
| 1 | 5 | Toms River South Indians 1 | Toms River South Indians 2 | 72% | |
| 1 | 6 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 77% | |
| 2 | 7 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | Toms River South Indians 1 | 81% | |
| 2 | 8 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | Toms River South Indians 2 | 97% | |
| 2 | 9 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | Toms River South Indians 2 | 92% | |
| 2 | 10 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | Toms River South Indians 1 | 93% | |
| 2 | 11 | Toms River South Indians 1 | Toms River South Indians 2 | 72% | |
| 2 | 12 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 77% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Griffins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Indians 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Colts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Indians 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Griffins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Indians 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Colts | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Indians 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Indians 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Indians 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Colts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Griffins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Indians 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Colts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Indians 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Griffins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Indians 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Colts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Indians 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Indians 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Indians 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Colts | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Griffins | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | Christopher Small '26 Jules Buczkowski '26 Mitchell Hnatt '24 |
Luke Pennisi '24 Kyle Lombardino '25 Daniel Stephan '24 |
|
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | James Kopack '24 Liam Marcell '26 Nicole Small '27 |
Caroline Felser '24 Scarlett Colman '26 Annabelle Arcuri '27 |
|
Toms River South | Indians 1 | Ella Demand '24 Joseph Krajewski '26 Rex Salzer '26 |
Maryn Demand '27 Mollie Smith '25 Ava Mcnabb '24 |
|
Toms River South | Indians 2 | Cameron Hart '27 Jacob Palombo '26 Scott Tedeschi '25 |
Nicholas Fatigate '24 Chase Kalwinsky '26 Shannon Underwood '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
