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MASSA Fall Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 38 24 62
2 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 45 56 101
3 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 43 60 103
4 Severn School Severn School Admirals 57 48 105
5 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 63 59 122
6 Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 72 MRP 89 MRP 161 MRP
7 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 113 MRP 64 MRP 177 MRP
8 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 100 MRP 83 MRP 183 MRP
9 Delbarton School Delbarton School Green Wave 82 118 200
10 St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 103 MRP 107 MRP 210 MRP
11 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 110 123 MRP 233 MRP
12 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 127 MRP 123 MRP 250 MRP
13 City Honors School City Honors School Centaurs 128 138 266
14 The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 134 MRP 133 MRP 267 MRP
15 Kenmore East High School Kenmore East High School Kenmore East 138 143 281
16 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 147 MRP 145 MRP 292 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 6 2 7 8 1 1 1 6 1 38 Tom Seibold '26
Cherry Phan '25
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 3 2 6 4 3 2 2 8 9 4 43 Charles Geraghty '26 [1-10]
Christina Pierce '25 [1-8]
Emily Julian '28 [9-10]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 7 1 12 1 2 3 4 2 7 6 45 Will Clay '25
Mia Cassetta '25
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 11 1 8 5 8 5 5 8 5 57 Antoine Ismael '27
Annie Lapides '25
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 11 14 3 6 1 4 7 3 4 10 63 Hartley Cooper '26 [1-10]
Daniel Schwaninger '26 [1-8]
Riley Schnable '25 [9-10]
Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 2 5 9 10 4 11 3 4 2 2 72 MRP Drew Defonzo '26
Maggie Defonzo '26
Delbarton School Delbarton School Green Wave 6 13 5 2 6 10 6 6 16 12 82 Will Seery '28
Aidan Streem '28
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 4 15 7 9 7 6 11 13 5 3 100 MRP Tucker Mcgrady '26
Caspian Collett '25
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 8 3 8 11 10 13 8 11 3 8 103 MRP No Show
No Show
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 10 9 10 12 16 7 14 14 11 7 110 Abigail Burritt '25
James O'Leary '25
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 14 10 4 3 11 9 12 9 10 11 113 MRP Lewis Forrest '25 [1-6, 9-10]
Nicole Small '27 [7-8]
Sophia Behar '25 [1-6, 9-10]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 12 12 13 15 9 5 15 16 1 9 127 MRP Shane Churilla '25
Grace Shields '25
City Honors School City Honors School Centaurs 15 4 16 13 14 15 9 15 13 14 128 Emmett King '26
Mia Rogalski '26
The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 9 8 11 5 15 16 10 12 15 13 134 MRP Nathan Libby '26
Aniyah Lang '28
Kenmore East High School Kenmore East High School Kenmore East 13 16 15 14 13 14 16 7 14 16 138 Sophia Vinson '25
Gage Johnson '25
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 16 7 14 16 12 12 13 10 12 15 147 MRP Clara Neeland '26
Nathan Willoughby '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2 3 6 3 3 BKD 2 1 1 24 Wyatt Lipp '28
Millicent Branflick '26
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 1 5 2 6 4 2 3 DSQ 6 48 Natalie Gaver '28 [1-10]
Isabella Ford '28 [1-2, 7-10]
Jack Lever-Farino '25 [3-6]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 10 7 7 3 2 11 5 4 5 2 56 Everett Moulds '26
Sam Glauner '27
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 4 3 10 8 11 1 6 6 7 3 59 Louisa Kalinski '25 [1-10]
Victor Kleppinger '25 [1-8]
Daniel Schwaninger '26 [9-10]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 14 6 1 1 1 9 9 11 4 4 60 Ann Martino '26 [1-10]
Emily Julian '28 [1-4]
Maggie Mcinerney '25 [5-8]
Vika Ferus '27 [9-10]
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 3 4 4 5 13 2 1 1 3 8 64 MRP Jack Pentony '26 [1-10]
Amelia Scuorzo '28 [1-4, 7-10]
Julien Wong '27 [5-6]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 5 5 2 7 8 7 8 8 8 5 83 MRP Emily Priest '25 [1-6, 9-10]
Lillian Rippel '25 [7-8]
Lenox Wakefield '27 [1-6, 9-10]
Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 7 10 11 9 5 5 4 5 6 7 89 MRP Peter Mazzagatti '26
Jeff Porter '26
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 8 11 9 11 4 12 7 9 2 14 107 MRP No Show
No Show
Delbarton School Delbarton School Green Wave 11 14 13 13 16 8 10 10 13 10 118 Jack Tonzola '25 [1-10]
John Mermel '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Henry Clyan '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 6 9 12 4 10 15 11 12 12 12 123 MRP James Stahl '27
Amelia Wire '27
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 15 8 6 12 7 10 14 13 9 9 123 MRP Skyler Krinetz '25 [1-8]
Erin Lawlor '26 [9-10]
Ella Chasse '27 [1-4]
Tanner Dalton '25 [5-10]
The Hague School The Hague School Tritons 16 12 8 10 9 6 15 15 11 11 133 MRP Levi Stillman '25
Aline Hughes '30
City Honors School City Honors School Centaurs 12 16 DNF DNS 14 14 3 14 15 16 138 Aniella Didomenico '26
Nolan Clough '26
Kenmore East High School Kenmore East High School Kenmore East 13 13 14 14 12 16 16 16 14 15 143 Sacha Vinson '28
Mason Ham-Deveans '27
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 9 15 15 15 15 13 13 7 10 13 145 MRP Fiona O'Rourke '28 [1-2]
Hayden Medick '26 [3-10]
Cameron Love '27 [1-2]
Matthew Treatman-Clark '27 [3-10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.240+0.24
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers1133557799
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins224466881010
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses335577991111
City Honors SchoolCity Honors School Centaurs44668810101212
Delbarton SchoolDelbarton School Green Wave55779911111313
Kenmore East High SchoolKenmore East High School Kenmore East7799111113131515
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders881010121214141616
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores9911111313151511
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers101012121414161622
Henderson High SchoolHenderson High School Warriors6688101012121414
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres14141616224466
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals1111131315151133
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks1212141416162244
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars13131515113355
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School Tritons151511335577
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings161622446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers224466881010
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins335577991111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses44668810101212
City Honors SchoolCity Honors School Centaurs55779911111313
Delbarton SchoolDelbarton School Green Wave6688101012121414
Kenmore East High SchoolKenmore East High School Kenmore East881010121214141616
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders9911111313151511
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores101012121414161622
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers1111131315151133
Henderson High SchoolHenderson High School Warriors7799111113131515
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres151511335577
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals1212141416162244
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks13131515113355
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars14141616224466
The Hague SchoolThe Hague School Tritons161622446688
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings1133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Charles Geraghty '26 [1-10] Christina Pierce '25 [1-8]
Emily Julian '28 [9-10]
Cavaliers Ann Martino '26 [1-10] Emily Julian '28 [1-4]
Maggie Mcinerney '25 [5-8]
Vika Ferus '27 [9-10]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Abigail Burritt '25 James O'Leary '25
Bruins Skyler Krinetz '25 [1-8]
Erin Lawlor '26 [9-10]		 Ella Chasse '27 [1-4]
Tanner Dalton '25 [5-10]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Tom Seibold '26 Cherry Phan '25
Seahorses Wyatt Lipp '28 Millicent Branflick '26
City Honors School City Honors School Emmett King '26 Mia Rogalski '26
Centaurs Aniella Didomenico '26 Nolan Clough '26
Delbarton School Delbarton School Will Seery '28 Aidan Streem '28
Green Wave Jack Tonzola '25 [1-10] John Mermel '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Henry Clyan '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Henderson High School Henderson High School Drew Defonzo '26 Maggie Defonzo '26
Warriors Peter Mazzagatti '26 Jeff Porter '26
Kenmore East High School Kenmore East High School Sophia Vinson '25 Gage Johnson '25
Kenmore East Sacha Vinson '28 Mason Ham-Deveans '27
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Will Clay '25 Mia Cassetta '25
Raiders Everett Moulds '26 Sam Glauner '27
Maury High School Maury High School Tucker Mcgrady '26 Caspian Collett '25
Commodores Emily Priest '25 [1-6, 9-10]
Lillian Rippel '25 [7-8]		 Lenox Wakefield '27 [1-6, 9-10]
Ranney School Ranney School Lewis Forrest '25 [1-6, 9-10]
Nicole Small '27 [7-8]		 Sophia Behar '25 [1-6, 9-10]
Panthers Jack Pentony '26 [1-10] Amelia Scuorzo '28 [1-4, 7-10]
Julien Wong '27 [5-6]
Severn School Severn School Antoine Ismael '27 Annie Lapides '25
Admirals Natalie Gaver '28 [1-10] Isabella Ford '28 [1-2, 7-10]
Jack Lever-Farino '25 [3-6]
South River High School South River High School Clara Neeland '26 Nathan Willoughby '25
Seahawks Fiona O'Rourke '28 [1-2]
Hayden Medick '26 [3-10]		 Cameron Love '27 [1-2]
Matthew Treatman-Clark '27 [3-10]
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist No Show No Show
Cougars No Show No Show
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Hartley Cooper '26 [1-10] Daniel Schwaninger '26 [1-8]
Riley Schnable '25 [9-10]
Sabres Louisa Kalinski '25 [1-10] Victor Kleppinger '25 [1-8]
Daniel Schwaninger '26 [9-10]
The Hague School The Hague School Nathan Libby '26 Aniyah Lang '28
Tritons Levi Stillman '25 Aline Hughes '30
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Shane Churilla '25 Grace Shields '25
Vikings James Stahl '27 Amelia Wire '27

Conditions — 10/26/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1022.4 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 11.1 kn
Gusts to 23.1 kn
From NW (316°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1022.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 12 kn · NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →