| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 1 | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Ranney School | Panthers | 2–2 |
| 3 | |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 2 | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,929 team race matches sailed before 2025-10-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 4 of 6 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.281 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | 1 | 6.84 school +0.14, home +0.09 | Chris Small / Christian Diaz 2.72 Jules Buczkowski / Alex Pistolakis 2.04 Patrick Kennedy / Joseph Boracchia 1.77 | 98% | 4–0 (100%) | +0.1 |
| 2 | Ranney School Panthers | 3 | 1.75 school +0.15 | Nicole Small / Deegan Pepe 0.64 Amelia Scuorzo / Joshua Portnoy Dylan Pagonis / Alli Harmon | 23% | 2–2 (50%) | +1.1 |
| 3 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 2 | 2.03 school +0.14, home +0.09 | Seth Santos / Christopher Reed Jack Slavin / Carter Henkel Christos Lambrou / Alton Deoliveria | 29% | 0–4 (0%) | −1.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | 6.84 | 9.84 | 4–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 92% |
| 2 | Ranney School Panthers | 1.75 | 4.44 | 2–2 | 0.9 | +2.69 | 1.6 | 22% |
| 3 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 2.03 | -0.97 | 0–4 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kennedy | Christian Brothers Academy | 1.77 | 4.77 | 4–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 92% |
| Amelia Scuorzo | Ranney School | 0.40 | 3.09 | 2–2 | 0.9 | +2.69 | 1.6 | 22% |
| Dylan Pagonis | Ranney School | 0.40 | 3.09 | 2–2 | 0.9 | +2.69 | 1.6 | 22% |
| Seth Santos | Christian Brothers Academy | 0.54 | -2.46 | 0–4 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Jack Slavin | Christian Brothers Academy | 0.10 | -2.90 | 0–4 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Christos Lambrou | Christian Brothers Academy | 1.01 | -1.99 | 0–4 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Ranney School Panthers | 98% | |
| 1 | 2 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 98% | |
| 1 | 3 | Ranney School Panthers | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 45% | upset |
| 2 | 4 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Ranney School Panthers | 98% | |
| 2 | 5 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 98% | |
| 2 | 6 | Ranney School Panthers | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 45% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 1 | Christopher Small '26 Jules Buczkowski '26 Patrick Kennedy '28 |
Christian Diaz '28 Alex Pistolakis '29 Joseph Boracchia '28 |
|
Ranney School | Panthers | Amelia Scuorzo '28 Dylan Pagonis '26 Nicole Small '27 |
Joshua Portnoy '26 Alli Harmon '27 Deegan Pepe '29 |
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 2 | Christos Lambrou '29 Jack Slavin '28 Seth Santos '27 |
Alton Deoliveria '26 Carter Henkel '28 Christopher Reed '28 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
