| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 3–1 |
| 4 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 3–2 |
| 5 |  |
The Hague School | The Tritons | 2–2 |
| 6 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 2–3 |
| 7 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 1–3 |
| 8 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 1–3 |
| 9 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | 1–3 |
| 10 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 1–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,054 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 1 of 1 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.032 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 1 | 5.88 school +0.11 | Jordan Vieira / Aidan Iaconis 2.29 Madeline Janzen / Cameron Kinnear 2.08 Alders Kulynych-Irvin / Simone Moss | 97% | 1–0 (100%) | +0.0 |
| 4 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 1 | 5.88 school +0.11 | Jordan Vieira / Aidan Iaconis 2.29 Madeline Janzen / Cameron Kinnear 2.08 Alders Kulynych-Irvin / Simone Moss | 97% | 1–0 (100%) | +0.0 |
| 7 | Maury High School Commodores | 2 | 1.48 school +0.06 | Charlotte Shumate / Gabby Cloe Ava Morgan / Madeline Ballard Tucker Mcgrady / Reagan Evans | 3% | 0–1 (0%) | −0.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 5.88 | 8.88 | 1–0 | 1.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 97% |
| 7 | Maury High School Commodores | 1.48 | -1.52 | 0–1 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | Maury High School Commodores | 97% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
The Tritons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 BKD | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 3 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Oaks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
The Tritons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-3-6 |
| 16 | |
Islanders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Oaks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
The Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Commodores | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | Alders Kulynych-Irvin '25 Jordan Vieira '24 Madeline Janzen '25 |
Simone Moss '25 Aidan Iaconis '22 Cameron Kinnear '24 |
|
Maury High School | Commodores | Ava Morgan '25 Charlotte Shumate '24 Tucker Mcgrady '26 |
Madeline Ballard '25 Gabby Cloe '24 Reagan Evans '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
