| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | 12–1 |
| 2 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 11–1 |
| 3 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 7–5 |
| 4 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 7–5 |
| 5 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 2–10 |
| 6 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 7–6 |
| 7 |  |
Grafton High School | Clippers | 5–8 |
| 8 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 3–9 |
| 9 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | 3–9 |
| 10 |  |
The Hague School | The Tritons | 1–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,006 team race matches sailed before 2022-10-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 53 of 63 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.387 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.04 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 43% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 7.18 | 9.06 | 11–1 | 9.3 | +1.88 | 1.6 | 16% |
| 5 | Maury High School Commodores | 3.06 | 4.01 | 4–8 | 2.9 | +0.95 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 7.96 | 8.75 | 12–1 | 11.4 | +0.79 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 10 | The Hague School The Tritons | 1.77 | 2.37 | 3–10 | 2.1 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 7 | Grafton High School Clippers | 3.36 | 3.23 | 5–8 | 5.2 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 9 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | 2.98 | 2.56 | 4–9 | 4.7 | −0.42 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 4 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 5.96 | 5.53 | 7–5 | 7.6 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 6 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 4.65 | 4.11 | 7–6 | 7.9 | −0.54 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 3 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 6.08 | 5.44 | 7–5 | 7.8 | −0.64 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 8 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 3.16 | 2.39 | 3–10 | 4.2 | −0.77 | 0.5 | 88% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey "Jj" Klempen | Christchurch School | 2.25 | 4.13 | 11–1 | 9.3 | +1.88 | 1.6 | 16% |
| Madeline "Maddie" Janzen | Christchurch School | 2.41 | 4.29 | 11–1 | 9.3 | +1.88 | 1.6 | 16% |
| Charlotte Shumate | Maury High School | 0.96 | 1.77 | 3–8 | 2.2 | +0.81 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Thomas Bloys | The Hague School | -0.22 | 0.38 | 3–10 | 2.1 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 36% |
| Felix Susta | Grafton High School | 0.14 | -0.04 | 3–6 | 3.2 | −0.18 | 0.0 | 72% |
| James Savage | Norfolk Academy | 0.72 | 0.34 | 4–7 | 4.6 | −0.38 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Hunter Wheary | Norfolk Academy | 1.26 | 0.84 | 4–9 | 4.7 | −0.42 | 0.2 | 79% |
| Eliana Jin | Norfolk Academy | 0.66 | 0.24 | 4–9 | 4.7 | −0.42 | 0.2 | 79% |
| Alex Salzberg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.64 | 0.10 | 7–6 | 7.9 | −0.54 | 0.3 | 84% |
| Jordan Viera | Christchurch School | 2.12 | 1.48 | 7–5 | 7.8 | −0.64 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Guillem Balaguer Soler | Christchurch School | 1.79 | 1.15 | 7–5 | 7.8 | −0.64 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Aubrey Walton | Poquoson High School | 0.86 | 0.10 | 3–10 | 4.2 | −0.77 | 0.5 | 88% |
| Cam Brewer | Poquoson High School | 1.18 | 0.02 | 2–9 | 3.4 | −1.17 | 0.8 | 93% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Oaks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 6 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 DSQ |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Clippers | 1-2-6 DSQ | def. | |
The Tritons | 3-4-5 DSQ |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Commodores | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-3-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Islanders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
The Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Commodores | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Commodores | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Islanders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
The Tritons | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 39 | |
Clippers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-3-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Islanders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 43 | |
Commodores | 1-2-5 | def. | |
The Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Seahorses 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-3-6 |
| 48 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 49 | |
Clippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-3-5 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Islanders | 2-4-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 51 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 54 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Clippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 56 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 57 | |
The Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 58 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 59 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 60 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 61 | |
The Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 62 | |
Clippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 63 | |
The Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
