Christchurch School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.97 (fleet 3.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 25–3 (89%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 2–1 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 2 | 23–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 25–3 against 21.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-29 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.45 | 2.30 | 2–1 | 2.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2022-10-08 | VISA Team Champs | skipper | 2.41 | 4.29 | 11–1 | 9.3 | +1.88 | 1.6 | 16% |
| 2022-09-17 | VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.17 | 3.67 | 12–1 | 10.6 | +1.50 | 1.0 | 25% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Champs | Skipper | TR | 12 | 92% | — |
| VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 13 | 92% | — |
| 2022 MASSA Fall Girls Invitational Championship | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.8 | 2.25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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