| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 15–0 |
| 2 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 10–5 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 10–5 |
| 4 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 6–9 |
| 5 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 5–7 |
| 6 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 2–10 |
| 7 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,742 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 43 of 49 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.305 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.49 ± 0.31: an orderly event, more orderly than 77% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 10.41 | 13.41 | 15–0 | 13.6 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 22% |
| 2 | Archbishop Spalding | 8.07 | 8.78 | 10–5 | 8.6 | +0.71 | 0.5 | 30% |
| 4 | Hampton Roads Academy | 6.83 | 7.17 | 6–9 | 5.3 | +0.33 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 6 | Broadneck High School | 5.09 | 5.32 | 2–10 | 1.8 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy | 8.49 | 8.65 | 10–5 | 9.7 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 5 | Christchurch School | 7.34 | 6.70 | 5–7 | 6.0 | −0.64 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 7 | The Stony Brook School | 6.20 | 4.37 | 1–6 | 2.4 | −1.84 | 1.3 | 97% |
| 8 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 5.50 | 2.50 | 0–7 | 1.6 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Herman | Archbishop Spalding | 2.35 | 3.06 | 10–5 | 8.6 | +0.71 | 0.5 | 30% |
| Chris White | Broadneck High School | 1.65 | 1.87 | 2–10 | 1.8 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 55% |
| Madeline "Maddie" Janzen | Christchurch School | 2.45 | 2.30 | 2–1 | 2.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Jeffrey "Jj" Klempen | Christchurch School | 2.38 | 1.74 | 5–7 | 6.0 | −0.64 | 0.4 | 86% |
| William "Bo" Angus | Christchurch School | 2.26 | 1.37 | 3–6 | 3.9 | −0.89 | 0.5 | 90% |
| Mauro Gonzales | The Stony Brook School | 2.29 | 0.55 | 1–5 | 2.2 | −1.74 | 1.1 | 96% |
| Alex Salzberg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.06 | -1.94 | 0–7 | 1.6 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bruins | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 2-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Admirals | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
