Broadneck High School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.26 (fleet 2.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 53–63 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 13–12 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 14–16 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 2 | 5–24 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 6–8 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 15–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (114 matches) the record is 52–62 against 52.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-27 | MASSA Team Championship and Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.80 | 1.43 | 7–11 | 7.9 | −0.37 | 0.2 | 78% |
| 2024-04-13 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.71 | 3.77 | 6–1 | 4.5 | +2.05 | 1.5 | 18% |
| 2023-04-29 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.80 | 2.03 | 2–10 | 1.8 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2023-04-01 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.75 | 2.93 | 6–5 | 4.6 | +1.18 | 0.9 | 25% |
| 2023-03-18 | MDISA SSA Team Race | skipper | 1.62 | 4.65 | 6–1 | 4.1 | +3.03 | 2.7 | 9% |
| 2022-10-22 | MASSA Fall 2022 Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.72 | 0.04 | 3–19 | 6.8 | −1.68 | 3.4 | 99% |
| 2022-10-08 | 2022 MDISA TR Qualifier | skipper | 1.82 | 0.44 | 2–5 | 3.0 | −1.38 | 0.8 | 95% |
| 2022-04-30 | MASSA 2022 Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.72 | 1.69 | 5–7 | 5.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2021-11-06 | MASSA Silver Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.36 | 1.63 | 15–3 | 14.5 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 52% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Marco Welch |  University of Vermont |
'28 |
| ISSA | Marco Welch |  Key School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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