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MDISA Fleet Race Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 7 8 15
2 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 17 16 33
3 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 31 26 57
4 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 32 35 67
5 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 40 30 70
6 Gilman School Gilman School Greyhounds 24 54 78
7 Towson High School Towson High School Generals 36 43 79
8 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 50 39 89
9 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 61 29 90
10 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 38 58 96
11 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 64 63 127
12 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 69 68 137
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 2 1 1 1 1 7 Thomas Sitzmann '23 [1-6]
Raam Fox '22 [1-2]
Scarlett Harris '24 [3-6]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 2 3 4 3 2 3 17 Anna Groszkowski '22 [1-4]
Hugh Carty '23 [5-6]
Christina Pierce '25 [1-4]
Gilman School Gilman School Greyhounds 3 1 DNF 2 3 2 24 Luke Woodworth '23
Nicky Merlo '23
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 4 5 6 4 6 6 31 Cole Canuel '23
Connor Lawrence '23
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 7 4 7 5 4 5 32 Chase Conway '22
Andrew Tollefson '22
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 5 6 5 8 5 7 36 Reese Meyers '23
Mika Thiessen '25
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 8 8 3 7 8 4 38 Conor Mastromarco '25
Adeline Mock '22
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 6 7 2 6 10 9 40 Jonjon Weed '22
Emilie Orendorff '22
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 9 9 8 9 7 8 50 Jonathan Stevenson '23
Ellis Thompson '23
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 10 11 9 10 11 10 61 Sterling Maggard '23
Kyle Engel '23
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 11 10 11 12 9 11 64 Ben Howard '22
Peter Judge '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 12 12 10 11 12 12 69 Alex Howard '22
Kristina Zarate '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 1 3 8 Robby Meek '23
Lilly Baker '23
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 2 3 4 3 2 2 16 Ava Farley '22 [1-4]
Parker Herman '24 [5-6]
Claire Woynerowski '22 [1-4]
Madeline Washburn '23 [5-6]
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 5 2 3 2 7 7 26 Ty Ryan '23 [1-4]
Henry Meyer '25 [5-6]
Annie Lapides '25 [1-4]
Finola Quinn '23 [5-6]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 6 5 5 8 4 1 29 Joseph Murphy '24
Marc Hauenstein '23
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 4 4 2 5 9 6 30 Tyler Hughes '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Marco Welch '24 [3-4]
Will Harding '22 [1-4]
Aden Keithley '24 [5-6]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3 DSQ 7 4 3 5 35 Jack Powers '24 [1-4]
William Donald '23 [5-6]
Finley Heflin '24 [1-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 7 6 6 6 6 8 39 Claire Sullivan '25
Eli Leopold '24
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 11 7 9 7 5 4 43 Malia Deane '25
Carter Robbins '25
Gilman School Gilman School Greyhounds 8 9 8 10 10 9 54 Thor Cohen '25
Liam Rivers '25
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 9 8 11 11 8 11 58 Anthony Thonnard '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 [3-4]
Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Irene Goldstein '25 [3-4]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 12 11 10 9 11 10 63 Johnny Riganati '23
Madison Cannon '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 10 10 12 12 12 12 68 Caeden Wirth '22
Austin Russell '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers113366
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers224477
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins336688
Gilman SchoolGilman School Greyhounds447799
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets66881010
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles77991111
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders8810101212
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals9911111313
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1010121211
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights12121133
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints1111131322
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals13132244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers224477
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers336688
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins447799
Gilman SchoolGilman School Greyhounds66881010
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets77991111
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles8810101212
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders9911111313
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals1010121211
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1111131322
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights13132244
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints12121133
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals113366
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Cole Canuel '23 Connor Lawrence '23
Panthers Ty Ryan '23 [1-4]
Henry Meyer '25 [5-6]		 Annie Lapides '25 [1-4]
Finola Quinn '23 [5-6]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Anna Groszkowski '22 [1-4]
Hugh Carty '23 [5-6]		 Christina Pierce '25 [1-4]
Cavaliers Ava Farley '22 [1-4]
Parker Herman '24 [5-6]		 Claire Woynerowski '22 [1-4]
Madeline Washburn '23 [5-6]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Jonjon Weed '22 Emilie Orendorff '22
Bruins Tyler Hughes '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Marco Welch '24 [3-4]		 Will Harding '22 [1-4]
Aden Keithley '24 [5-6]
Gilman School Gilman School Luke Woodworth '23 Nicky Merlo '23
Greyhounds Thor Cohen '25 Liam Rivers '25
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Jonathan Stevenson '23 Ellis Thompson '23
Hornets Claire Sullivan '25 Eli Leopold '24
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Conor Mastromarco '25 Adeline Mock '22
Eagles Anthony Thonnard '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 [3-4]		 Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Irene Goldstein '25 [3-4]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Sterling Maggard '23 Kyle Engel '23
Raiders Joseph Murphy '24 Marc Hauenstein '23
Severn School Severn School Thomas Sitzmann '23 [1-6] Raam Fox '22 [1-2]
Scarlett Harris '24 [3-6]
Admirals Robby Meek '23 Lilly Baker '23
Severna Park Severna Park Ben Howard '22 Peter Judge '25
Falcons Johnny Riganati '23 Madison Cannon '25
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Chase Conway '22 Andrew Tollefson '22
Saints Jack Powers '24 [1-4]
William Donald '23 [5-6]		 Finley Heflin '24 [1-4]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Alex Howard '22 Kristina Zarate '22
Knights Caeden Wirth '22 Austin Russell '22
Towson High School Towson High School Reese Meyers '23 Mika Thiessen '25
Generals Malia Deane '25 Carter Robbins '25

Conditions — 04/23/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1026.1 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From ESE (115°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1026.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn · NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Severn Sailing Association: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Severn Sailing Association by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Severn Sailing Association, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →