| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 2–3 |
| 4 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 2–3 |
| 6 |  |
Annapolis High School | Panthers | 1–3 |
| 7 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,025 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 17 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.375 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.17 ± 0.52: a typical event, more orderly than 54% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 6.89 | 9.89 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 3 | Leonardtown High School | 3.14 | 4.71 | 3–2 | 1.9 | +1.57 | 1.0 | 25% |
| 2 | Archbishop Spalding | 5.61 | 6.34 | 3–1 | 2.6 | +0.74 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 6 | Annapolis High School | 2.43 | 2.93 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.50 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 4 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 4.27 | 3.28 | 2–3 | 2.6 | −0.98 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 4 | Broadneck High School | 4.52 | 3.22 | 2–3 | 2.9 | −1.30 | 0.6 | 94% |
| 7 | Great Mills High School | 2.50 | -0.50 | 0–5 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Cornell | Severn School | 2.29 | 5.29 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 49% |
| David Abbott | Leonardtown High School | 0.71 | 2.26 | 2–1 | 1.2 | +1.55 | 0.7 | 34% |
| Cole Canuel | Annapolis High School | 1.17 | 1.67 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.50 | 0.1 | 59% |
| Sam White | Annapolis High School | 0.04 | 0.54 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.50 | 0.1 | 59% |
| Jack Powers | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.35 | 0.37 | 2–3 | 2.6 | −0.98 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Chase Conway | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.85 | 0.87 | 2–3 | 2.6 | −0.98 | 0.4 | 90% |
| William Donald | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.34 | 0.36 | 2–3 | 2.6 | −0.98 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Jonjon Weed | Broadneck High School | 1.96 | 0.66 | 2–3 | 2.9 | −1.30 | 0.6 | 94% |
| Marco Welch | Broadneck High School | 1.21 | -0.09 | 2–3 | 2.9 | −1.30 | 0.6 | 94% |
| Jonathan Stevenson | Great Mills High School | 1.14 | -1.86 | 0–5 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Peter Morris | Great Mills High School | 0.55 | -2.45 | 0–5 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Saints | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Panthers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Raiders | def. | |
Cavaliers | ||
| 9 | |
Admirals | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Panthers | def. | |
Hornets | ||
| 11 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Saints | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 2-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Bruins | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Cavaliers | def. | |
Panthers | ||
| 20 | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-3-6 |
| 21 | |
Saints | def. | |
Bruins | ||
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Severn School | Admirals | Ava Cornell '24 Kyle Reinecke '23 Raam Fox '22 |
Jed Lory '23 Lilly Baker '23 Reese Corckran '24 |
|
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | Anna Groszkowski '22 Ava Farley '22 Hugh Carty '23 Owen Macwilliams '24 Parker Herman '24 |
Addison Lisiewski '22 Michael Hinrichs '22 Claire Woynerowski '22 |
|
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | David Abbott '23 Douglass Abbott '23 Joseph Murphy '24 Sterling Maggard '23 |
Joe Gardner '23 Marc Hauenstein '23 Kyle Engel '23 |
|
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | Chase Conway '22 Jack Powers '24 William Donald '24 |
Andrew Tollefson '22 Finley Heflin '24 No Show |
|
Broadneck High School | Bruins | Jonjon Weed '22 Marco Welch '23 Tyler Hughes '22 |
Maddison Carew '23 Will Harding '22 Aden Keithley '23 |
|
Annapolis High School | Panthers | Cole Canuel '22 Sam White '23 Ty Ryan '22 |
Connor Lawrence '22 Asha Myers '22 Annie Lapides '25 |
|
Great Mills High School | Hornets | Eli Leopold '24 Jonathan Stevenson '23 Peter Morris '23 |
Daniel Aaron '23 Eliza Szymendera '25 Ellis Thompson '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
