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MDISA SSA Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 10 6 16
2 Severn School Severn School Admirals 7 15 22
3 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 21 23 44
4 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 27 20 47
5 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 23 33 56
6 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 41 33 74
7 Key School Key School Zags 34 46 80
8 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 36 45 81
9 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 55 26 81
10 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 47 46 93
11 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 37 56 93
12 Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 52 42 94
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 2 2 1 1 7 Kyle Reinecke '23
Lilly Baker '23
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 3 1 1 2 3 10 Hugh Carty '23 [1-4]
Anna Groszkowski '22 [5]
Addison Lisiewski '22 [1-2, 5]
Christina Pierce '25 [3-4]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 2 3 10 4 2 21 Chase Conway '22
Andrew Tollefson '22
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 4 4 3 5 7 23 Cole Canuel '23
Connor Lawrence '23
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 5 7 6 4 27 Marco Welch '24 [1-4]
Jonjon Weed '22 [5]
Will Harding '22 [1-4]
Aden Keithley '24 [5]
Key School Key School Zags 11 7 4 3 9 34 Molly Roden '22 [1-4]
Mason Cook '25 [5]
Stella Kim '23 [1-4]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 10 8 6 7 5 36 Conor Mastromarco '25
Adeline Mock '22
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 8 9 5 9 6 37 Hartley Cooper '26 [1-5]
Caroline Welte '25 [1-2]
Louisa Kalinski '25 [3-5]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 7 6 12 8 8 41 Jonathan Stevenson '23
Daniel Aaron '23
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 6 11 8 10 12 47 Josh Powell '22 [1-2]
Daniel Draper '27 [3-4]
Austin Latimer '22 [5]
William Lovelace '23 [1-2]
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 9 10 11 12 10 52 Eric Johnson '23 [1-2, 5]
Caroline Odell '23 [3-4]
Alexa Bodor '22 [1-2, 5]
Morgan Rathjen '24 [3-4]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 12 12 9 11 11 55 Douglass Abbott '23
Joe Gardner '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 1 2 1 1 1 6 Ava Farley '22 [1-2]
Owen Macwilliams '24 [3-4]
Parker Herman '24 [5]
Claire Woynerowski '22 [1-2]
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 1 3 2 7 15 Sam De Los Reyes '26
Reese Corckran '24
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 3 3 6 4 4 20 Tyler Hughes '22
Emilie Orendorff '22
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4 7 4 6 2 23 William Donald '23
Antigua Steward '24
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 6 5 7 5 3 26 David Abbott '23
Kyle Engel '23
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 8 8 5 7 5 33 Eli Leopold '24
Ellis Thompson '23
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 11 9 2 3 8 33 Henry Meyer '25 [1-2]
Ty Ryan '23 [3-5]
Asha Myers '23 [1-2]
Annie Lapides '25 [3-5]
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 10 6 10 10 6 42 Brady Briggs '23 [1-2]
Kearns '24 [3-5]
Erin Casey '25 [1-2]
Caitlin Costello '24 [3-5]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 9 4 9 DSQ 10 45 Anthony Thonnard '22
Alston Georges '22
Key School Key School Zags 5 10 8 11 12 46 Andrew Baker '24
Trey Burman '25
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 7 11 11 8 9 46 Austin Latimer '22 [1-2]
Gus Keish '24 [3-5]
Beatrice Bello '22 [1-2]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 12 12 12 9 11 56 Armand Otmishi '24 [1-3]
Josh Sambrano '23 [4-5]
Josh Sambrano '23 [1-2]
Caroline Welte '25 [3-5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.240+0.24
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers11335
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers22446
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins33557
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets44668
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles55779
Key SchoolKey School Zags668810
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders779911
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1111113
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals88101012
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks9911111
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints101012122
Yorktown High SchoolYorktown High School Patriots1212224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers22446
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers33557
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins44668
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets55779
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles668810
Key SchoolKey School Zags779911
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders88101012
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1212224
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals9911111
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks101012122
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints1111113
Yorktown High SchoolYorktown High School Patriots11335
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Cole Canuel '23 Connor Lawrence '23
Panthers Henry Meyer '25 [1-2]
Ty Ryan '23 [3-5]		 Asha Myers '23 [1-2]
Annie Lapides '25 [3-5]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Hugh Carty '23 [1-4]
Anna Groszkowski '22 [5]		 Addison Lisiewski '22 [1-2, 5]
Christina Pierce '25 [3-4]
Cavaliers Ava Farley '22 [1-2]
Owen Macwilliams '24 [3-4]
Parker Herman '24 [5]		 Claire Woynerowski '22 [1-2]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Marco Welch '24 [1-4]
Jonjon Weed '22 [5]		 Will Harding '22 [1-4]
Aden Keithley '24 [5]
Bruins Tyler Hughes '22 Emilie Orendorff '22
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Jonathan Stevenson '23 Daniel Aaron '23
Hornets Eli Leopold '24 Ellis Thompson '23
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Conor Mastromarco '25 Adeline Mock '22
Eagles Anthony Thonnard '22 Alston Georges '22
Key School Key School Molly Roden '22 [1-4]
Mason Cook '25 [5]		 Stella Kim '23 [1-4]
Zags Andrew Baker '24 Trey Burman '25
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Douglass Abbott '23 Joe Gardner '23
Raiders David Abbott '23 Kyle Engel '23
Severn School Severn School Kyle Reinecke '23 Lilly Baker '23
Admirals Sam De Los Reyes '26 Reese Corckran '24
South River High School South River High School Josh Powell '22 [1-2]
Daniel Draper '27 [3-4]
Austin Latimer '22 [5]		 William Lovelace '23 [1-2]
Seahawks Austin Latimer '22 [1-2]
Gus Keish '24 [3-5]		 Beatrice Bello '22 [1-2]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Chase Conway '22 Andrew Tollefson '22
Saints William Donald '23 Antigua Steward '24
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Hartley Cooper '26 [1-5] Caroline Welte '25 [1-2]
Louisa Kalinski '25 [3-5]
Sabres Armand Otmishi '24 [1-3]
Josh Sambrano '23 [4-5]		 Josh Sambrano '23 [1-2]
Caroline Welte '25 [3-5]
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Eric Johnson '23 [1-2, 5]
Caroline Odell '23 [3-4]		 Alexa Bodor '22 [1-2, 5]
Morgan Rathjen '24 [3-4]
Patriots Brady Briggs '23 [1-2]
Kearns '24 [3-5]		 Erin Casey '25 [1-2]
Caitlin Costello '24 [3-5]

Conditions — 03/19/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1007.7 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.0 kn
avg  ·  max 15.6 kn
Gusts to 30.9 kn
From SW (217°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover40% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1007.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →