| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 15–3 |
| 2 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 12–6 |
| 3 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 11–7 |
| 4 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 9–9 |
| 5 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 4–11 |
| 6 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 0–15 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,909 team race matches sailed before 2021-11-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 51 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.447 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.12 ± 0.31: a typical event, more orderly than 32% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mamaroneck High School | 3.15 | 4.33 | 12–6 | 8.9 | +1.18 | 2.0 | 8% |
| 4 | Great Mills High School | 2.43 | 3.38 | 9–9 | 6.6 | +0.95 | 1.3 | 14% |
| 1 | Broadneck High School | 4.90 | 5.17 | 15–3 | 14.5 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 3 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 4.45 | 3.57 | 11–7 | 13.2 | −0.88 | 1.1 | 94% |
| 5 | Poquoson High School | 2.69 | 1.20 | 4–11 | 6.7 | −1.50 | 2.2 | 98% |
| 6 | Severna Park | -0.04 | -3.04 | 0–15 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stevenson | Great Mills High School | 1.07 | 2.01 | 9–9 | 6.6 | +0.95 | 1.3 | 14% |
| Jonjon Weed | Broadneck High School | 2.02 | 2.29 | 15–3 | 14.5 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 52% |
| Chase Conway | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.72 | 0.85 | 11–7 | 13.2 | −0.88 | 1.1 | 94% |
| William Donald | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.19 | 0.31 | 11–7 | 13.2 | −0.88 | 1.1 | 94% |
| Jack Powers | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.50 | 0.62 | 11–7 | 13.2 | −0.88 | 1.1 | 94% |
| Cam Brewer | Poquoson High School | 1.03 | -0.53 | 3–3 | 4.4 | −1.56 | 1.3 | 97% |
| Ben Howard | Severna Park | 0.04 | -2.96 | 0–15 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Johnny Riganati | Severna Park | -0.26 | -3.26 | 0–15 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Hornets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Saints | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Hornets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Saints | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Saints | 2-4-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-3-6 RAF |
| 8 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bruins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hornets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Bruins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Islanders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Tigers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Islanders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hornets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 DNF,DNF |
| 18 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 DSQ |
| 19 | |
Hornets | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 DNS |
| 22 | |
Hornets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Hornets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Islanders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Saints | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Hornets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Bruins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Saints | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Hornets | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Islanders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Tigers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 46 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 47 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Tigers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Broadneck High School | Bruins | Jonjon Weed '22 Marco Welch '24 Tyler Hughes '22 |
Will Harding '22 Emilie Orendorff '22 Aden Keithley '24 |
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Gabby Collins '24 Lanie Ferrarone '24 Max Shapiro '23 Michelle Kaneti '25 |
Taylor Ferrarone '23 Jonathan Wittick '25 Nicholas Heggerud '23 |
|
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | Chase Conway '22 Jack Powers '24 William Donald '23 |
Ava Hope-Ross '23 Andrew Tollefson '22 Antigua Steward '24 Gavin Fretz '23 |
|
Great Mills High School | Hornets | Claire Sullivan '25 Eli Leopold '24 Jonathan Stevenson '23 |
Eliza Szymendera '25 Gracie Muir '23 Ellis Thompson '23 Daniel Aaron '23 |
|
Poquoson High School | Islanders | Cam Brewer '24 Chase Brewer '22 Grace Watlington '22 Olivia Gilmore '23 |
Caleb Kyle '25 Eleanor Patterson '22 Ava Michel '22 Emery Hill '23 |
|
Severna Park | Falcons | Ben Howard '22 Johnny Riganati '23 Peter Judge '25 |
Madison Cannon '25 Connor Smith '25 Robert Heath '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
