St. Mary's High School (MD) '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 18–19 (49%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | — | 7–12 |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | — | 11–7 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (37 matches) the record is 18–19 against 20.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-30 | MASSA 2022 Team Race Championship | crew | 1.59 | 1.61 | 4–8 | 4.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2022-04-02 | MDISA SCC Team Race | crew | 1.48 | 1.17 | 3–4 | 3.3 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2021-11-06 | MASSA Silver Team Race Championship | crew | 1.19 | 0.31 | 11–7 | 13.2 | −0.88 | 1.1 | 94% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Team Race Qualifier | Crew | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| MDISA SCC Varsity | Crew | B | 4 | 4.8 | — |
| MDISA SCC Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| MASSA Fleet Championship and Mallory Qualifier | Crew | B | 5 | 8.2 | — |
| MASSA 2022 Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Season Opener Gold | Crew | B | 5 | 5.6 | — |
| MDISA Fleet Qualifier @SSA | Crew | B | 4 | 4.5 | — |
| MASSA Silver Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| MASSA Fleet Racing Championships | Crew | B | 2 | 12.5 | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Silver regatta at SCC | Crew | A | 4 | 5.2 | — |
| MDISA Silver at Chesapeake Experience | Crew | B | 5 | 11.2 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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