| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 2–8 |
| 6 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,121 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 30 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.213 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.67 ± 0.42: an orderly event, more orderly than 91% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 9.68 | 12.68 | 10–0 | 9.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 75% |
| 3 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 4.59 | 6.13 | 6–4 | 4.2 | +1.54 | 1.6 | 14% |
| 2 | Archbishop Spalding | 6.47 | 7.95 | 8–2 | 7.0 | +1.47 | 0.8 | 33% |
| 4 | Broadneck High School | 4.96 | 4.35 | 4–6 | 4.8 | −0.62 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 5 | Leonardtown High School | 3.86 | 2.97 | 2–8 | 3.0 | −0.89 | 0.5 | 89% |
| 6 | Great Mills High School | 2.77 | -0.23 | 0–10 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Farley | Archbishop Spalding | 1.71 | 4.71 | 6–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 34% |
| Jack Powers | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.69 | 3.23 | 6–4 | 4.2 | +1.54 | 1.6 | 14% |
| Chase Conway | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.86 | 3.40 | 6–4 | 4.2 | +1.54 | 1.6 | 14% |
| William Donald | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.41 | 2.95 | 6–4 | 4.2 | +1.54 | 1.6 | 14% |
| Parker Herman | Archbishop Spalding | 1.88 | 2.09 | 2–2 | 1.9 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 82% |
| Jonjon Weed | Broadneck High School | 2.16 | 1.54 | 4–6 | 4.8 | −0.62 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Jonathan Stevenson | Great Mills High School | 1.19 | -1.81 | 0–10 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Peter Morris | Great Mills High School | 0.57 | -2.43 | 0–10 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Raiders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Saints | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Saints | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bruins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Saints | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Bruins | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Severn School | Admirals | Kyle Reinecke '23 Robby Meek '23 Thomas Sitzmann '23 |
Ella May Corckran '22 Lilly Baker '23 Raam Fox '22 |
|
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | Ava Farley '22 Hugh Carty '23 Owen Macwilliams '24 Parker Herman '24 |
Madeline Washburn '23 Christina Pierce '25 Kaitlyn Zimmerman '24 |
|
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | Chase Conway '22 Jack Powers '24 William Donald '23 |
Andrew Tollefson '22 Antigua Steward '24 Gavin Fretz '22 |
|
Broadneck High School | Bruins | Jonjon Weed '22 Maddison Carew '23 Tyler Hughes '22 |
Emilie Orendorff '22 Will Harding '22 Madeline Fisher '23 |
|
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | Douglass Abbott '23 Joseph Murphy '24 Sterling Maggard '23 |
Kyle Engel '23 Marc Hauenstein '23 Will Clay '25 |
|
Great Mills High School | Hornets | Claire Sullivan '25 Jonathan Stevenson '23 Peter Morris '23 |
Clare Greenwell '22 Alex Prior '24 Ellis Thompson '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
