| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals 1 | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 3–4 |
| 5 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 2–5 |
| 7 | |
Severn School | Admirals 2 | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
Annapolis High School | Panthers | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,054 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 28 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.482 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.27 ± 0.43: a typical event, more orderly than 23% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School Admirals 1 | 7.32 | 10.32 | 7–0 | 6.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 2 | Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers | 5.27 | 7.51 | 6–1 | 4.3 | +2.25 | 1.9 | 13% |
| 3 | Broadneck High School Bruins | 4.86 | 6.16 | 5–2 | 3.8 | +1.29 | 0.9 | 26% |
| 5 | Leonardtown High School Raiders | 3.42 | 4.29 | 3–4 | 2.2 | +0.87 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 6 | Great Mills High School Hornets | 2.92 | 3.27 | 2–5 | 1.7 | +0.34 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 4 | St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints | 4.39 | 4.09 | 3–4 | 3.3 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 8 | Annapolis High School Panthers | 2.68 | -0.32 | 0–7 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
| 7 | Severn School Admirals 2 | 6.14 | 2.89 | 2–5 | 5.2 | −3.25 | 6.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Hinrichs | Archbishop Spalding | 1.00 | 3.24 | 6–1 | 4.3 | +2.25 | 1.9 | 13% |
| Peter Morris | Great Mills High School | 0.50 | 1.97 | 1–3 | 0.4 | +1.47 | 0.5 | 36% |
| Jonjon Weed | Broadneck High School | 2.08 | 3.37 | 5–2 | 3.8 | +1.29 | 0.9 | 26% |
| Parker Herman | Archbishop Spalding | 1.89 | 2.73 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.84 | 0.1 | 64% |
| Jonathan Stevenson | Great Mills High School | 1.33 | 1.67 | 2–5 | 1.7 | +0.34 | 0.1 | 57% |
| Chase Conway | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.82 | 1.51 | 3–4 | 3.3 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Jack Powers | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.53 | 1.22 | 3–4 | 3.3 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 77% |
| William Donald | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.48 | 1.17 | 3–4 | 3.3 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 77% |
| David Abbott | Leonardtown High School | 0.88 | -2.12 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Henry Meyer | Annapolis High School | -0.32 | -3.32 | 0–7 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
| Ava Cornell | Severn School | 2.61 | -0.64 | 2–5 | 5.2 | −3.25 | 6.0 | >99% |
| Will Friedell | Severn School | 1.64 | -1.61 | 2–5 | 5.2 | −3.25 | 6.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bruins | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Saints | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Hornets | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hornets | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-3-6 |
| 23 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
