Severn School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.42 (fleet 2.35) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–6 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 2–0 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 2–1 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 4–6 against 7.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-08 | 2022 MDISA TR Qualifier | skipper | 1.82 | -0.75 | 2–1 | 2.8 | −2.57 | 1.2 | 99% |
| 2022-04-02 | MDISA SCC Team Race | skipper | 1.65 | -1.60 | 2–5 | 5.2 | −3.25 | 6.0 | >99% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Nathan Long |  University of Miami |
'28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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