MDISA SSPP JV Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 7 7
2 Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 8 8
3 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 2 19 19
4 Gunston Gunston Herons 1 22 22
5 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 3 27 27
6 Gunston Gunston Herons 2 34 34
7 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 1 38 38
8 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 1 40 40
9 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3 42 42
10 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 2 55 55
11 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 2 57 57
12 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 1 58 58
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 2 2 1 1 7 Will Friedell '24
Kate Castleberry '24
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 2 1 1 2 2 8 Nathan Long '24
Reese Corckran '24
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 2 4 4 3 4 4 19 Parker Corson '27
Josh Sambrano '23
Gunston Gunston Herons 1 3 BKD BKD 5 5 22 Tommy Mcgeady '25 [1-2, 5]
Robbie Wilmer '24 [3-4]
Eli Moore '25 [1-2, 5]
Grace Anne Philips '23 [3-4]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 3 7 8 6 3 3 27 Hudson Stewart '26 [1-2]
Hartley Cooper '26 [3-5]
Louisa Kalinski '25 [1-2]
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 6 7 7 8 6 34 Matthew Periconi '24 [1-2]
Ian Kissel '23 [3-5]
Caeden Harrison '24 [1]
Cy Johnston '23 [2, 5]
Lilah Paddy '24 [3-4]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 1 5 5 8 7 DNS 38 Robert Norbury '24
Victor Kleppinger '25
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 1 8 6 4 9 DNF 40 Daphne Walsh '27
Charles Langemak '24
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3 9 9 5 6 DNS 42 Cristian Botsis '25 [1-2]
Halsey Carter '26 [3-4]
Myles Riffle '31 [5]
Armand Otmishi '24 [1-2]
Finley Heflin '24 [3-4]
Aurelea Cerny '30 [5]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 2 DNS 3 DNF DNS DNS 55 Finley Heflin '24
James Chapman '27
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 2 DNS 11 10 10 DNS 57 Irene Goldstein '25
Arabelle Gemmell '25
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 1 DNF 10 9 DNS DNF 58 Alex Miller '25
Benjamin Skalka '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles 133445
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles 244556
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres 11010111112
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres 2111112121
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres 31212112
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 155667
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 266778
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 177889
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 2889910
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 399101011
GunstonGunston Herons 111223
GunstonGunston Herons 222334

Conditions — 03/27/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1008.9 hPa

Temperature

43°F
↑ 44°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 31°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
14.4 kn
avg  ·  max 15.7 kn
Gusts to 31.5 kn
From WNW (292°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1008.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Saints Peter & Paul: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.32)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.42
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+1.13 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.32 means a rating gap counts about 28% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Saints Peter & Paul by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Saints Peter & Paul, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →