MDISA Kent Island Silver Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 19 22 41
2 Gunston Gunston Herons 2 16 31 47
3 Gunston Gunston Herons 1 39 10 49
4 Bulldogs Bulldogs Bulldogs 21 30 51
5 Severn School Severn School Admirals 33 28 61
6 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 33 37 70
7 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 44 27 71
8 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 27 52 79
9 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 51 44 95
10 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 48 48 96
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 1 5 2 2 2 4 16 Robbie Wilmer '24
Abby Nolan '25
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 5 2 4 4 1 3 19 Hartley Cooper '26
Louisa Kalinski '25
Bulldogs Bulldogs Bulldogs 3 1 8 5 3 1 21
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 2 7 1 1 10 6 27 Theo Ransom '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Jackson Park '22 [3-4]
Catherine Valentino '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Noah Wigglesworth '22 [3-4]
Severn School Severn School Admirals 7 8 5 3 5 5 33 Nathan Long '24
Lila Gibson '22
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 9 4 3 7 8 2 33 James Lilyquist '24
Steven Lumpkins '23
Gunston Gunston Herons 1 4 3 7 6 9 10 39 Ian Kissel '23 [1-6]
Laim Thomas '23 [1-2]
Julia Buchanan '23 [3-6]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 8 6 6 DSQ 4 9 44 Ryan Brelage '24
Mac Fitzgerald '24
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 6 10 10 9 6 7 48 Theo Ransom '22
Freyja Raines '27
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 10 9 9 8 7 8 51 William Fachet '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathaniel Grimm '22 [3-4]
Matthew Burggraff '22 [1-2]
Evan Wackowski '22 [3-4]
Nathaniel Grimm '22 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Gunston Gunston Herons 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 10 Tommy Mcgeady '25 [1-6]
Abbey Miller '23 [1-2]
Grace Anne Philips '23 [3-6]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 3 5 6 3 2 3 22 Parker Corson '27
Josh Sambrano '23
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 7 1 3 2 5 9 27 Noelle Davis '25
Addison Davis '25
Severn School Severn School Admirals 9 2 5 4 3 5 28 Julia Hlousek '24
Natalie King '25
Bulldogs Bulldogs Bulldogs 4 4 1 5 9 7 30
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 5 7 7 6 4 2 31 Cy Johnston '23 [1-6]
Maggie Miller '23 [1-2]
Eli Moore '25 [3-6]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 9 8 9 6 4 37 Will Clay '25
Carter Jones '24
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 10 8 4 8 8 6 44 Griffin Barney '22 [1-2]
Caden Latchaw '23 [3-4]
Zachary Wells '25 [5-6]
Matthew Salay '22 [1-2]
Lucia Zaklin '27 [3-4]
Henry Macmillan '26 [5-6]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 6 6 10 RDG 10 8 48 Thomas Birchfield '27
Joseph Dibonaventuro '26
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 8 DNS 9 7 7 10 52 Caden Latchaw '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexandra Green '23 [3-4]
Lucia Zaklin '27 [1-2]
Audrey Valentino '24 [3-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets224466
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 1446688
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 2557799
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders66881010
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers779911
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres10102244
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals88101022
BulldogsBulldogs Bulldogs991133
GunstonGunston Herons 1335577
GunstonGunston Herons 2113355

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets335577
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 1557799
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 266881010
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders779911
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers88101022
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres113355
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals991133
BulldogsBulldogs Bulldogs10102244
GunstonGunston Herons 1446688
GunstonGunston Herons 2224466
School / Team SkipperCrew
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Ryan Brelage '24 Mac Fitzgerald '24
Hornets Noelle Davis '25 Addison Davis '25
Gunston Gunston Ian Kissel '23 [1-6] Laim Thomas '23 [1-2]
Julia Buchanan '23 [3-6]
Herons 1 Tommy Mcgeady '25 [1-6] Abbey Miller '23 [1-2]
Grace Anne Philips '23 [3-6]
Gunston Gunston Robbie Wilmer '24 Abby Nolan '25
Herons 2 Cy Johnston '23 [1-6] Maggie Miller '23 [1-2]
Eli Moore '25 [3-6]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Theo Ransom '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Jackson Park '22 [3-4]
Catherine Valentino '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Noah Wigglesworth '22 [3-4]
Buccaneers 1 Caden Latchaw '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexandra Green '23 [3-4]
Lucia Zaklin '27 [1-2]
Audrey Valentino '24 [3-6]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School William Fachet '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathaniel Grimm '22 [3-4]
Matthew Burggraff '22 [1-2]
Evan Wackowski '22 [3-4]
Nathaniel Grimm '22 [5-6]
Buccaneers 2 Griffin Barney '22 [1-2]
Caden Latchaw '23 [3-4]
Zachary Wells '25 [5-6]
Matthew Salay '22 [1-2]
Lucia Zaklin '27 [3-4]
Henry Macmillan '26 [5-6]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School James Lilyquist '24 Steven Lumpkins '23
Raiders Will Clay '25 Carter Jones '24
Patuxent Patuxent Theo Ransom '22 Freyja Raines '27
Panthers Thomas Birchfield '27 Joseph Dibonaventuro '26
Severn School Severn School Nathan Long '24 Lila Gibson '22
Admirals Julia Hlousek '24 Natalie King '25
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Hartley Cooper '26 Louisa Kalinski '25
Sabres Parker Corson '27 Josh Sambrano '23

Conditions — 09/26/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.9 kn
avg  ·  max 14.9 kn
Gusts to 24.1 kn
From WNW (296°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1016.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Kent Island: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.17)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.31
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.17 means a rating gap counts about 15% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kent Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Kent Island, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →