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MDISA WRSC Spring 2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 12 11 23
2 Severn School Severn School Admirals 11 17 28
3 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 25 18 43
4 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 17 29 46
5 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 28 28 56
6 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 33 23 56
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 3 2 2 2 1 1 11 Chris Mccollum '24
John Szynal '24
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 1 1 5 1 2 2 12 Sophie Griggs '24 [1-6]
Lara Nielsen '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Gena Squires '24 [3-4]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 2 4 1 4 3 3 17 Clara Wilson '24 [1-6]
Sammy Somers '25 [1-2]
Caroline Fuller '23 [3-4]
Grady Western '26 [5-6]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 4 3 4 6 4 4 25 No Show
William Lovelace '23
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 5 5 3 5 5 5 28 Anthony Thonnard '22 [1-6]
Alston Georges '22 [1-4]
Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 [5-6]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 6 6 6 3 6 6 33 Alexander Read '22
Audrey Valentino '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 1 2 4 1 2 1 11 Griffin Hewitt '21 [1-6]
Eric Nielsen '24 [1-2]
Katelyn Bullock '24 [3-4]
Robert Whisman '24 [5-6]
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 3 2 6 1 3 17 Will Friedell '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathan Long '24 [3-4]
Helena English '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Julia Hlousek '24 [3-4]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 3 1 1 2 6 5 18 No Show
William Lovelace '23
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 4 4 6 4 3 2 23 Jonathan Mills '23
Zachary Wells '25
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 6 6 5 3 4 4 28 Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22
Miles Wilkin '23
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 5 5 3 5 5 6 29 Caroline Mederos '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Caroline Fuller '23 [3-4]
Lillie Fuller '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Sammy Somers '25 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles444444
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers555555
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers666666
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals333333
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks111111
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs222222

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles444444
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers555555
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers666666
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals333333
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks111111
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs222222
School / Team SkipperCrew
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Anthony Thonnard '22 [1-6] Alston Georges '22 [1-4]
Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 [5-6]
Eagles Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 Miles Wilkin '23
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Alexander Read '22 Audrey Valentino '24
Buccaneers Jonathan Mills '23 Zachary Wells '25
Patuxent Patuxent Clara Wilson '24 [1-6] Sammy Somers '25 [1-2]
Caroline Fuller '23 [3-4]
Grady Western '26 [5-6]
Panthers Caroline Mederos '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Caroline Fuller '23 [3-4]		 Lillie Fuller '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Sammy Somers '25 [3-4]
Severn School Severn School Chris Mccollum '24 John Szynal '24
Admirals Will Friedell '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathan Long '24 [3-4]		 Helena English '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Julia Hlousek '24 [3-4]
South River High School South River High School No Show William Lovelace '23
Seahawks No Show William Lovelace '23
Southern High School Southern High School Sophie Griggs '24 [1-6] Lara Nielsen '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Gena Squires '24 [3-4]
Bulldogs Griffin Hewitt '21 [1-6] Eric Nielsen '24 [1-2]
Katelyn Bullock '24 [3-4]
Robert Whisman '24 [5-6]

Conditions — 04/10/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 16.7 kn
From ESE (111°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine6.0 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1014.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Southern: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.44 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Southern: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →