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MDISA Gunston Fall '21 Bronze

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 6 4 10
2 Gunston Gunston Herons 15 11 26
3 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 20 13 33
4 Stone Ridge Stone Ridge Stone Ridge 14 23 37
5 Key School Key School Zags 18 21 39
6 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 19 22 41
7 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 21 23 44
8 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 31 27 58
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 3 1 1 1 6 Chris Mccollum '24 [1-2]
Will Friedell '24 [3-4]
Reese Corckran '24 [1-2]
John Szynal '24 [3-4]
Stone Ridge Stone Ridge Stone Ridge 2 2 7 3 14 Trey Burman '25
Sofia Forsberg '25
Gunston Gunston Herons 4 5 4 2 15 Helen Boone '21 [1-2, 4]
Robbie Wilmer '24 [3]
Hannah Worth '21 [1-2, 4]
Cy Johnston '23 [3]
Key School Key School Zags 1 7 2 8 18 Mason Cook '20
Ever Roberts '20
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 7 3 3 6 19 Hartley Cooper '26
Brody Wilson '24
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 5 6 5 4 20 Sam White '23
Finola Quinn '23
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 6 4 6 5 21 Johnny Riganati '20
Ted Glister '24
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 8 8 8 7 31 Caroline Fuller '23 [1-4]
Grady Western '26 [1-2]
Timothy Stout '25 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 4 Nathan Long '24 [1-4]
Julia Hlousek '24 [1-2]
Kate Castleberry '24 [3-4]
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 2 4 3 11 Charles Shifrin '21
Ian Kissel '23
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 3 3 2 5 13 Sam White '23
Finola Quinn '23
Key School Key School Zags 7 4 8 2 21 William Montague '24
Samantha Parks '20
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 6 7 3 6 22 Julia Buchanan '23
Grace Anne Philips '23
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 4 6 5 8 23 Johnny Riganati '20
Ted Glister '24
Stone Ridge Stone Ridge Stone Ridge 5 5 6 7 23 Trey Burman '25
Sofia Forsberg '25
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 8 8 7 4 27 Caroline Mederos '24
Lillie Fuller '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers16161616
Key SchoolKey School Zags2222
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers1111
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres8888
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals18181818
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons10101010
Stone RidgeStone Ridge Stone Ridge9999
GunstonGunston Herons12121212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers16161616
Key SchoolKey School Zags2222
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers1111
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres8888
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals18181818
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons10101010
Stone RidgeStone Ridge Stone Ridge9999
GunstonGunston Herons12121212

Conditions — 04/24/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1017.1 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.1 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From SW (235°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine7.7 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1017.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at The Gunston: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at The Gunston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at The Gunston, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →